Trump's New Strategy for Latin America: Venezuela, Cuba, & the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ | Brian Winter

The sudden and cinematic extraction of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela has sent shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape, marking what may be the most dramatic decision regarding Latin America by a U.S. president in half a century. This operation was not merely an isolated tactical success; it represents a fundamental transformation in American grand strategy. As the dust settles in Caracas, it is becoming clear that the Trump administration is not just engaging in foreign diplomacy but is actively rewriting the rules of engagement in the Western Hemisphere. By revisiting historical frameworks and prioritizing aggressive security measures, the United States appears to be pivoting toward a new era of "spheres of influence," with profound implications for democracy, trade, and stability across the region.

Key Takeaways

• The "Donroe Doctrine": The administration is reviving the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, effectively asserting the United States' right to act as a police power in the Western Hemisphere.
• Tactical Success, Strategic Ambiguity: While the removal of Maduro was a military success, the Chavista regime remains largely intact under Delcy Rodriguez to prevent an Iraq-style collapse of basic services.
• The Rise of the Right: A revolution of right-wing politics is sweeping Latin America, driven primarily by voter demands for security against organized crime and the visible failure of Venezuelan socialism.
• Personnel is Policy: The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State signals a level of focus on Latin America not seen in 40 years, with policy likely shaped by a mix of diplomatic strategy and aggressive enforcement.
• Future Targets: With Venezuela as a precedent, attention is shifting toward Colombia’s cocaine production, Mexico’s fentanyl crisis, and the potential collapse of the Cuban communist regime.

The Venezuela Operation: A Calculated Gamble

The extraction of Nicolas Maduro was a high-risk operation that defied the expectations of many analysts. Despite isolationist rhetoric regarding "forever wars," the Trump administration authorized a daring deployment of U.S. forces. The operation was clinically executed, resulting in no American casualties—a tactical victory that stands in stark contrast to previous interventions like the chaotic aftermath of the Bin Laden raid or the complexities of Middle Eastern conflicts.

However, the removal of the dictator has not resulted in an immediate transition to democracy. Instead, the administration appears to be applying lessons learned from the invasion of Iraq. Rather than dismantling the entire state apparatus—a move that previously led to insurgencies and the collapse of civil order in the Middle East—the U.S. has allowed the broader Chavista regime to remain in place, now led by Delcy Rodriguez.

The "Game of Thrones" in Caracas

The current situation in Venezuela is less of a power vacuum and more of a fragile reshuffling of the existing deck. The regime's structure, including the military and the "colectivos" (armed paramilitary groups), remains largely intact. The U.S. strategy appears to hinge on a pragmatic, albeit controversial, calculation: stability first, transition second.

What Nicolas Maduro and now the people who are left... what they have most feared over the years is not losing power or even losing their lives. What they most fear is spending the rest of their lives in a supermax federal prison in the United States.

This fear is now the primary leverage the U.S. holds over the remaining leadership. The challenge for the new de facto government is managing internal rivalries—a literal "Game of Thrones"—while attempting to signal cooperation with Washington to avoid Maduro's fate.

The Return of the Roosevelt Corollary

The administration's actions have been dubbed by some observers as the "Donroe Doctrine," a play on the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. However, the current strategy aligns more closely with the Roosevelt Corollary of the early 20th century. While James Monroe warned European powers against interfering in the Americas, Teddy Roosevelt expanded this concept to grant the United States the right to exercise "international police power" in cases of chronic wrongdoing or impotence within the hemisphere.

For the last 30 years, U.S. policy generally treated Latin American nations as equal partners within a liberal international order. That era appears to be over. The new national security strategy suggests a return to a world of "spheres of influence," where the U.S. asserts dominance over the Western Hemisphere, potentially deprioritizing other regions to secure its own backyard against Chinese and Russian encroachment.

Latin America’s Revolution of the Right

Beyond the direct interventions of the United States, Latin America is undergoing an organic political transformation. From Javier Milei in Argentina to Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, right-wing leaders are winning elections and capturing the public imagination. This shift is driven by two primary factors:

1. The Security Crisis

The region is grappling with a severe spike in organized crime. Cocaine production in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia has tripled or quadrupled in the last decade, flushing cartels with cash and fueling violence. In this environment, voters are increasingly willing to trade civil liberties for safety. The "Bukele model"—characterized by mass incarceration and a suspension of due process—has resulted in a dramatic drop in homicides in El Salvador, making it a seductive template for voters across the region who are exhausted by extortion and violence.

2. The Venezuelan Exodus

The collapse of the Venezuelan economy under socialist rule has served as a potent inoculation against leftist ideology for neighboring countries. Approximately 8 million Venezuelans have fled their country, settling in Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Brazil. The visible presence of these refugees—many of whom were formerly middle-class professionals now living in poverty—has vividly demonstrated the failure of 21st-century socialism to the Latin American electorate.

Who is Next? The Expanding Target List

With the precedent set in Venezuela, speculation is mounting regarding where the U.S. might turn its attention next. Three nations stand out as potential focal points for this renewed interventionist policy:

• Colombia: As the world’s largest cocaine producer, Colombia represents a significant security concern. With a leftist president, Gustavo Petro, who has been combative with the U.S. administration, there is a possibility of unilateral strikes against cartel targets on Colombian soil.
• Mexico: The relationship with Mexico remains complex. While cooperation exists on migration, the fentanyl crisis—fueled by Chinese precursors processing in Mexico—remains a flashpoint. The administration has signaled that patience with the cartels is running thin, viewing them as a direct threat to U.S. national security.
• Cuba: The communist regime in Havana is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, with nearly 20% of the population fleeing the island in recent years. With Marco Rubio—the son of Cuban immigrants—at the helm of the State Department, the administration may view this as a historic window of opportunity to hasten the fall of the 65-year-old regime.

Conclusion

We are witnessing a definitive end to the post-Cold War norms that governed U.S. relations with Latin America. The shift toward a transactional, security-first foreign policy prioritizes outcomes over diplomatic niceties. While this approach resonates with a domestic base tired of "weakness" abroad, it carries significant risks, including the potential for long-term occupation scenarios or regional backlash.

As the U.S. doubles down on securing the Western Hemisphere, the region itself faces internal challenges, including a demographic collapse in countries like Chile and the rise of AI-powered surveillance states. The intersection of American assertiveness and Latin American political turbulence suggests that the next decade will be one of the most consequential periods in the history of the Americas.