Table of Contents
Donald Trump has signaled aggressive economic ambitions, claiming the U.S. economy could achieve 15% growth under new Federal Reserve leadership, while the cryptocurrency market approaches a critical technical juncture. As Bitcoin consolidates near the $68,000 mark, investors are analyzing the potential friction between aggressive fiscal policy targets and technical indicators suggesting the digital asset market is severely oversold.
Key Points
- Economic Targets: Donald Trump stated the U.S. economy could grow by up to 15% under the potential leadership of Kevin Warsh at the Federal Reserve.
- Bitcoin Technicals: The leading cryptocurrency is trading in a tight range between $68,000 and $72,000; a breakout above this zone opens a path to $83,000.
- Market Divergence: While U.S. equities like the Russell 2000 approach all-time highs, crypto assets remain in a correction phase.
- Stock Signals: Major tech stocks, including Meta and AMD, are testing critical support levels at their 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).
Trump's Economic Vision and Federal Reserve Strategy
In recent remarks, Donald Trump addressed his past personnel decisions regarding the Federal Reserve, clarifying his stance on Kevin Warsh. While reports circulated suggesting Trump regretted recent choices, the former President clarified that his "mistake" referred to not appointing Warsh during his previous term, opting instead for Jerome Powell.
Trump expressed high confidence in Warsh’s capabilities to drive unprecedented economic expansion. He suggested that a cooperative dynamic between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve could unlock double-digit growth.
"If our new head of the Fed... does the job that he's capable of, we can grow at 15%. That's big... We're going to do something that's really spectacular."
Market analysts interpret this as a signal for a "super hot" economic strategy, likely involving a close partnership between the Treasury and the Fed to stimulate aggressive expansion.
Crypto Markets at a Critical Junction
While equities rally, the cryptocurrency market faces a distinct period of consolidation. Bitcoin is currently trading flat, rejecting resistance within the $68,000 to $72,000 zone. Technical analysis suggests that a decisive move outside this channel will dictate the medium-term trend.
- Downside Risk: A break below $68,000 could see prices retreat to the low $60,000s.
- Upside Potential: A breakout above $72,000 could clear the path to fill the CME gap around $83,000.
Despite recent weakness, momentum indicators provide a bullish contrarian signal. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is currently in oversold territory—a reading historically observed only at the bottom of bear markets. Furthermore, Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a vital long-term support line.
Ethereum and Solana display similar technical setups. Ethereum has touched the lower bounds of its Bollinger Bands, a pattern that has preceded bounces during previous sell-offs, including the 2022 bear market bottom. However, analysts warn that while a bounce is statistically probable, macroeconomic uncertainty remains a risk factor.
Equities Divergence and Key Stock Levels
A significant divergence has emerged between traditional equities and digital assets. The Russell 2000 is trading within 2% of its all-time highs, and the S&P 500 remains robust. However, individual tech stocks are facing critical tests of their own.
Meta and AMD Test Support
Meta Platforms (META) recently retested a cluster of EMAs—the 20, 50, and 200-day lines—around the $678 level. Bulls are looking for the stock to hold above the upper bound of its current triangle pattern to confirm a breakout toward $870.
Conversely, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is showing signs of weakness, forming a potential double-top pattern. The stock recently bounced off its 200-day EMA but remains in a downward trend on momentum indicators like the MACD. A failure to hold the 200-day average could trigger a deeper correction toward the $115–$120 range.
Market Outlook
Investors are currently monitoring ETF inflows for signs of renewed institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. While recent days have seen positive inflows of approximately $150 million, significantly higher volume is required to reverse the current bearish sentiment.
With business cycle indicators and RSI levels aligning at historical bottoms, the market is primed for a reversal, provided key support levels hold. As volatility compresses across major assets, analysts anticipate a significant move in the coming weeks that will resolve the current indecision in both the crypto and tech sectors.
