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New data analysis indicates that Justin Trudeau holds the highest average approval rating among Canadian Prime Ministers serving since 2004, outpacing predecessors Paul Martin and Stephen Harper. According to figures collected by the Angus Reid Institute, Trudeau maintains a slight statistical lead in public sentiment when averaging popularity metrics over the course of his tenure compared to the distinct terms of Canada's previous leaders.

Key Findings

• Justin Trudeau holds the highest average approval rating at 46% among Prime Ministers analyzed since 2004.
• Paul Martin follows closely with a 44% average during his tenure from 2003 to 2006.
• Stephen Harper recorded an average approval of 38% over his nine-year leadership.
• Volatility remains a factor for all leaders, with Trudeau seeing the widest gap between his peak popularity (66%) and lowest point (29%).

Historical Performance Analysis

While evaluating the legacy of Canada's 23 Prime Ministers often relies on historical memory—evoking names like Trudeau Sr. or Mulroney—the Angus Reid Institute provides a quantitative metric through continuous approval rating tracking initiated in 2004. This data offers a comparative lens for the three most prominent leaders of the last two decades: Justin Trudeau, Paul Martin, and Stephen Harper.

The analysis identifies Justin Trudeau as the statistical leader in average public approval. Serving from 2015 to the present, Trudeau’s mandate has been characterized by significant fluctuations in public opinion. While his average rating settles at 46%, he also achieved the highest peak popularity among the group at 66%. Conversely, his lowest recorded approval rating dipped to 29%, highlighting the shifting sentiment of the Canadian electorate over his extended time in office.

Martin and Harper Comparisons

Paul Martin, who served from 2003 to 2006, secured the second-highest ranking. His average approval rating stood at 44%, only two percentage points behind Trudeau. Martin’s data shows a peak approval of 59% and a low of 31%. His relatively shorter tenure compared to Harper and Trudeau may contribute to the stability of his average, as he faced fewer years of long-term incumbent fatigue.

Stephen Harper, leading the country from 2006 to 2015, recorded the lowest average among the three at 38%. His approval ratings showed a tighter variance than his successor, with a high of 54% and a low of 27%. While Harper's peak did not reach the heights of Martin or Trudeau, his lowest point was comparable to Trudeau's floor.

Data Implications

The report suggests that while historical memory plays a role in how leaders are perceived, the raw data provides a definitive hierarchy regarding real-time public sentiment.

"According to the data, the best prime minister from 2004 to today is Justin Trudeau."

It is important to note that average approval ratings are influenced by the length of tenure and the specific political and economic climates faced by each leader. Trudeau's ability to maintain a higher average despite a tenure approaching a decade suggests a resilient base of support, even as his lowest numbers mirror the troughs experienced by the Conservative leadership of the Harper era.

As data collection by the Angus Reid Institute continues, these averages will evolve, particularly as the current administration navigates ongoing political challenges that could further impact the long-term historical averages.