Taiwan Under Siege: The Growing Chinese Invasion Threat and America's Strategic Dilemma

Defense expert Ian Easton reveals China's massive military buildup targeting Taiwan, warning signs of potential invasion, and critical strategic decisions facing America in Asia.

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan's abnormal history as an unrecognized democracy stems from the 1949 Chinese Civil War stalemate and Cold War strategic calculations that led to US derecognition in 1979.
• The Taiwan Relations Act legally binds America to help Taiwan maintain credible self-defense and resist Chinese coercion, despite lacking formal diplomatic recognition.
• Taiwan's democratic transformation since the 1980s created a flourishing liberal democracy, while growing exposure to mainland China actually decreased Taiwanese support for unification.
• China now operates the world's largest navy including traditional ships, coast guard vessels, and a militarized fishing fleet used to harass neighbors and expand territorial control.
• The People's Liberation Army has laser-focused its entire military buildup on invading Taiwan, developing capabilities to deter or defeat American intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
• Warning signs of potential invasion include unannounced satellite launches, aggressive propaganda threatening Taiwan's president, increased intelligence collection, and maritime militia harassment of Taiwan's outer islands.
• China's massive ballistic missile arsenal exploits the absence of INF Treaty restrictions, creating destabilizing strike capabilities against US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
• The risk of invasion within the next decade is real and growing as the military balance shifts decisively in China's favor while democracies maintain static force levels.

Timeline Overview

• 00:00–15:00 — Ian Easton's background: From rural Illinois to Taiwan studies, living in Taiwan 2005-2010 as translator and researcher. His firsthand experience observing Taiwan's democracy and Chinese society. Introduction to The Project 2049 Institute and his expertise on Asian defense issues.
• 15:00–30:00 — Taiwan's complex history: Japanese colony 1895-1945, planned Operation Causeway invasion canceled, transfer to Republic of China government. Chinese Civil War stalemate created by US intervention in 1950. Cold War recognition politics and the bizarre diplomatic situation where few countries treat Taiwan as legitimate despite its democratic success.
• 30:00–45:00 — 1979 policy shift and Taiwan Relations Act: Carter administration's derecognition of Taiwan to gain Chinese cooperation against Soviet Union. Congressional backlash led to Taiwan Relations Act requiring US to help Taiwan resist coercion and maintain self-defense capabilities. Legal obligations despite diplomatic fiction.
• 45:00–60:00 — Taiwan's democratic evolution: Rise of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) challenging Kuomintang one-party rule. Recent elections showing growing Taiwanese nationalism and rejection of Chinese identity. Impact of increased cross-strait contact during Ma Ying-jeou presidency paradoxically strengthening independence sentiment.
• 60:00–75:00 — Chinese military buildup assessment: People's Liberation Army's 350-ship navy surpassing US fleet numbers. Coast guard and maritime militia creating "Little Blue Men" harassment capabilities. Ballistic missile arsenal exploiting INF Treaty loophole to threaten US bases and Taiwan. Systematic preparation for Taiwan invasion scenario.
• 75:00–90:00 — Invasion warning indicators: Unannounced satellite launches, aggressive propaganda threatening Taiwan's leadership, increased intelligence collection, maritime militia harassment of outer islands. Militarization of Chinese society and private companies. Missing indicators include sabotage, cyber attacks, and mass amphibious vessel assembly.

Taiwan's Abnormal History and Strategic Significance

• Taiwan exists as what Ian Easton calls "a country that today very few other countries treat as a country" due to its unique historical trajectory from Japanese colony (1895-1945) to Republic of China refuge following the 1949 communist victory in the Chinese Civil War. This created one of history's most protracted stalemates.
• The planned Operation Causeway invasion of Taiwan during World War II was canceled because joint chiefs realized "it would be far too bloody and far too dangerous to carry out." Instead, Taiwan was blockaded and bombed while Japanese forces remained bottled up on the island until surrender, highlighting Taiwan's natural defensive advantages.
• President Truman's 1950 decision to deploy the Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait created two of the most dangerous flashpoints continuing today. As Easton explains: "What this did is it created two of the most protracted stalemates in history...both civil wars, both on the Korean peninsula and in Taiwan. Both civil wars that never concluded."
• Roosevelt's concept of "World Policemen" including the Republic of China as a major power foundation for the UN Security Council was derailed by the communist victory. This left Taiwan as an orphaned remnant of the original allied victory plan, maintaining de facto independence without international recognition.
• Taiwan's position in the first island chain from Vietnam through Japan gives it "unique strategic and commercial significance as a gateway to the pacific," making control over the island critical for any power seeking to dominate Asian sea lanes and commerce.
• The island's strategic location controls some of the world's busiest maritime routes, with implications far beyond Taiwan itself. Chinese control would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Pacific and threaten the economic lifelines of American allies from Japan to Australia.

The 1979 Pivot and Taiwan Relations Act

• The Carter administration's 1979 derecognition of Taiwan resulted from Cold War strategic calculations rather than Taiwan's legitimacy. As Easton notes: "The United States felt it was starting to lose the Cold War and the balance of power was tipping dangerously in favor of the Soviet Union and something needed to be done."
• Chinese leaders from Mao Zedong through Deng Xiaoping consistently demanded Taiwan derecognition as a prerequisite for improved relations. The US initially resisted, maintaining embassies in both Beijing and Taipei from 1972-1979, but ultimately sacrificed Taiwan to gain Chinese cooperation against the Soviet Union.
• Congressional backlash to Carter's sudden announcement was immediate and bipartisan. The Taiwan Relations Act passed as a "veto-proof" response because "most of the US government was surprised. The announcement came very suddenly. It was developed in secret" and struck "a raw nerve after Watergate and the scandals of the early 1970s."
• The Act legally commits America to "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion or intimidation that would jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the people of Taiwan."
• This created binding obligations for the US military to be ready to defend Taiwan from invasion, blockade, economic coercion, and subversion attempts. As Easton emphasizes: "arguably, Washington has not done a very good job in doing those things" in recent decades as China's capabilities have grown.
• The legal framework establishes that despite diplomatic fiction, America has concrete obligations to Taiwan's defense that transcend normal diplomatic relations. This creates potential for automatic escalation if China attacks Taiwan, regardless of presidential preferences.

Taiwan's Democratic Transformation and Rising Nationalism

• Taiwan's evolution from Kuomintang military dictatorship to "one of the greatest democratic success stories on the planet" occurred largely after US derecognition. The island now features a female president, legalized gay marriage, and represents "a very liberal democracy" that contrasts sharply with authoritarian mainland China.
• The Democratic Progressive Party's emergence in the 1980s was crucial because "without the DPP...Taiwan wouldn't be the flourishing democracy that it is today." The original Kuomintang system was "essentially a political party built along Leninist lines" and "very authoritarian in nature," making democratic competition essential for political reform.
• Paradoxically, increased cross-strait contact during the Ma Ying-jeou presidency (2008-2016) strengthened rather than weakened Taiwanese independence sentiment. Easton observed firsthand how "the more business delegations and tourists visiting Taiwan from the PRC...the more they saw this aggressive push to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty, the less they liked it."
• Young Taiwanese who had never visited mainland China held "romanticized" views until direct exposure revealed the reality. As Easton recounts from his graduate school experience: "When I told them about the pollution, about the corruption, about the crackdown on human rights...it was very hard for them to believe" until they experienced it themselves.
• The 2016 and 2020 DPP electoral victories reflected growing recognition that "Taiwan is nothing like China, that they are an independent country" and determination that "they're not going to allow their government to be coerced" or "compromise" their freedom and democracy.
• Hong Kong's fate under Chinese control particularly influenced Taiwanese attitudes, as "people in Taiwan have seen what the Chinese Communist Party has done to Hong Kong" and "what's happened in Xinjiang," deepening "their distrust for any promises made by the government in Beijing."

China's Unprecedented Naval Buildup

• China now operates the world's largest navy with "about 350" ships compared to America's "less than 300, about 290," fundamentally altering the naval balance in the Pacific. This represents a historic shift in maritime power that most Americans haven't fully grasped.
• The Chinese fleet includes three distinct components: traditional navy ships, a coast guard "way bigger than our coast guard or any other coast guard in the world," and a maritime militia where "all of the fishing boats, transport ships, ferries, everything that goes to sea, that's 50 tons or above is all registered with the military."
• Maritime militia vessels provide China with "civilianized arm of the military because they don't wear uniforms" while receiving military training and serving military objectives. These "Little Blue Men" operate like "the Little Green Men of Crimea" but in maritime environments to advance territorial claims.
• The 2012 Scarborough Shoal incident exemplified China's strategy when "the United States government brokered a deal" for both Chinese and Philippine forces to withdraw, but "the Chinese didn't, they stayed and they occupied it. And when they did that, when they broke the deal, the US did nothing."
• Professor Andrew Erickson's research revealed the systematic militarization of China's civilian fleet, demonstrating how Beijing created multiple layers of maritime power projection while maintaining plausible deniability about military intentions.
• This naval expansion enables China to "harass all of its neighbors and push out the boundaries of its maritime territory" while the US government "until recently, stood by and done very little" to counter this unprecedented peacetime military buildup.

The People's Liberation Army's Taiwan Focus

• The PLA's primary mission is crystal clear: "the number one mission of the People's Liberation Army is to invade and occupy Taiwan and to do it in a way that either deters the United States and other countries from coming to Taiwan's defense or defeats them in the event that deterrence fails."
• Chinese military planning documents reveal decades of focused preparation. Easton explains: "you can read Chinese military studies, the People's Liberation Army's doctrinal studies, the course books that they've written for their National Defense University and their army command academies" showing consistent Taiwan invasion planning.
• China's military buildup specifically targets Taiwan invasion scenarios while minimizing international reaction. They've "engaged in an absolutely stunning military build-up and they've done it in a way that is directly relevant for a future invasion operation of Taiwan" while keeping democratic responses "subdued."
• The ballistic missile threat is particularly acute because China exploited the INF Treaty loophole. After the US and Soviet Union agreed that missiles "between 300 and 500 miles in range" were destabilizing, "China saw an opportunity and they seized upon it" by building massive missile forces unconstrained by treaties.
• Key American bases now face direct threat as "today, we have very large air force bases in Guam, Anderson Air Force base and also in Okinawa, at Kadena which is our largest air force base on foreign soil, and they are under that threat umbrella" of Chinese missiles.
• The missile advantage creates dangerous instability because "with very little warning China could shower them with ballistic missiles and with land-based cruise missiles. They could do the same of course to Taiwan's air bases," fundamentally altering the strategic balance in the Taiwan Strait.

Warning Signs and Invasion Indicators

• Current warning signs include "unannounced launch of two satellites from China" followed by more secret launches "just a few weeks ago." When "they start to do satellite launches that are secret, that are unannounced...and you can tell that those are reconnaissance satellites, that's a warning sign."
• Propaganda escalation shows dangerous trajectory with "hyper nationalistic propaganda messages, really bloody minded, really aggressive propaganda messages" where "they've threatened to kill the president of Taiwan. They've said that they would wipe her out" - messaging "very different than what you would have seen just a year ago."
• Military activity around Taiwan has intensified with "a lot of air and maritime activity around Taiwan" plus "reports of increased intelligence collection against Taiwan, which is also what you would expect to see happen before a crisis or even a full-on invasion."
• Maritime militia harassment targets Taiwan's outer islands: "a lot of Taiwan's outer islands...Jinmen for example and more recently Matsu" are "being harassed now by Chinese maritime militia," activities that typically precede major military operations.
• Societal militarization shows "widespread militarization of Chinese society" and "mobilization of private industry or what people previously thought of as private companies" that increasingly "serve not only the Chinese Communist Party itself politically...but they also serve the People's Liberation Army for military ends."
• Missing indicators provide some reassurance: "What we have not yet seen are acts of sabotage directed at Taiwan...no assassination attempts...no abductions...no cyber attacks or at least no very successful overt cyber attacks that knocked out the power grid or the banking system...no cuttings of the telecommunication cables."

The combination of China's massive military buildup, growing warning indicators, and American strategic uncertainty creates unprecedented danger for Taiwan and the broader Pacific region. While invasion isn't imminent, the risk has never been higher as Beijing develops capabilities specifically designed to seize Taiwan while deterring or defeating American intervention.