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Benjamin Cowen

The Mechanism That Ends Business Cycles

The Mechanism That Ends Business Cycles

Business cycles are multi-year processes defined by a shift from riskier assets to safety. While the Fed focuses on employment and prices, geopolitical conflict and energy markets often serve as the final catalyst that ends a cycle. Discover the rhythm of the macroverse today.

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Visualizing the Business Cycle

Visualizing the Business Cycle

For many investors, the full business cycle remains theoretical. By visualizing how labor, inflation, and interest rates interact, we can identify whether the economy is approaching a soft landing or a significant correction. Learn how to track the peaks and troughs of history.

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Why Alt Season Never Happened: Understanding Liquidity

Why Alt Season Never Happened: Understanding Liquidity

Investors expecting a 2021-style alt season were left waiting as capital failed to rotate. This analysis explores how tight macro liquidity and the flight to quality hierarchy kept funds in Bitcoin and blue-chip assets, breaking the traditional crypto market cycle.

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Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance

Is Bitcoin dominance really stalling, or are stablecoins distorting the view? While many hope for an alt season, excluding stablecoins reveals a clear flight to safety. Learn why the market structure is changing and how to avoid capital erosion in the current cycle.

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Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, Chess

Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks, Chess

Don't succumb to the "bear market blues." We look at historical data from midterm years to identify recurring patterns in Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500. Learn how these cycles provide a crucial roadmap for navigating the volatile months ahead.

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How low will Bitcoin go?

How low will Bitcoin go?

As the crypto market navigates a correction, investors wonder: How low will Bitcoin go? By analyzing on-chain metrics like Realized and Balanced Prices, we identify high-probability zones for a bottom and compare current market structures to historical cycles.

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Bitcoin Crash Continues

Bitcoin Crash Continues

Bitcoin continues to face significant downward pressure with no sign of a bounce. Analysis of historical cycles and the break below the 50-week moving average suggests the top occurred in October. All signs now point to a confirmed bear market deep in correction.

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Bitcoin: Damage Report

Bitcoin: Damage Report

Bitcoin's recent drop signals a shift from uncertainty to concern. This damage report breaks down market structure, debunks the metals rotation narrative, and explains why "apathy tops" result in slow, painful bleeds rather than quick crashes.

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Silver Drops 38%

Silver Drops 38%

Silver has plummeted nearly 40%, ending a recent mania. While unsettling, historical data suggests this is characteristic of market cycles. We analyze the gold-silver ratio and past peaks to help you decide if this is a temporary setback or a signal of a deepening recession.

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A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks

A Deeply Concerning Chart for Stocks

While headlines cheer nominal highs, the S&P 500/Gold ratio reveals a precarious reality. Testing the critical 1.45 support—a level linked to the Great Depression and 70s stagflation—this chart warns of a potential recession and major capital rotation imminent for investors.

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Gold: Dubious Speculation

Gold: Dubious Speculation

With gold near $4,600, the long-term thesis from 2020 is playing out. Is this the top or just the start? We analyze why RSI signals might be misleading and why the trajectory to $6,000 by 2026 remains the primary outlook.

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Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Bitcoin is navigating a complex counter-trend rally, leaving investors questioning if this is a dead cat bounce. Analyzing liquidity cycles and the "ghost town" effect in retail engagement, evidence suggests a phase of market apathy and digestion rather than immediate growth.

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Crypto Ghost Town

Crypto Ghost Town

While Bitcoin hits new highs, the broader market feels empty. This "Crypto Ghost Town" cycle is driven by institutions, not the retail mania of 2021. We analyze social metrics and market structures to explain why retail investors have abandoned the ecosystem despite ETF launches.

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Ethereum: Logarithmic Regression

Ethereum: Logarithmic Regression

Since 2019, logarithmic regression has defined Ethereum's price action, accurately predicting the 2022 lows. We analyze this model's trajectory and why it projects a "fair value" consolidation around $2,100 by 2026.

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