Syria's Collapse: How Israel and Turkey Are Quietly Carving Up the Country

The fall of Assad has left Syria in chaos, with major powers now drawing invisible lines across the country while Damascus burns under Israeli airstrikes.

Key Takeaways

• Syria has effectively collapsed as a functioning state, leaving a power vacuum that neighboring countries are rushing to fill
• Israel is aggressively expanding its sphere of influence in southern Syria, using the Druze community as justification for military action
• Al Galani's government lacks real authority and can't resist Israeli strikes despite his attempts to appease Tel Aviv
• Turkey's Erdogan publicly opposes Israel while secretly coordinating behind the scenes, even allowing Israeli aircraft to transit Turkish airspace
• The bombing of Damascus represents a new level of Israeli boldness that would have been unthinkable during Assad's rule
• A broader regional deal between Turkey and Israel could reshape Middle Eastern power dynamics beyond just Syria
• Damascus itself faces the real possibility of complete collapse into chaos as no single power maintains full control
• The partition of Syria into spheres of influence appears inevitable, with ordinary Syrians paying the price
• Erdogan's domestic rhetoric about defending Islam contrasts sharply with his practical cooperation with Israeli and American interests
• The weakening of Iran creates opportunities for Turkey and Israel to become the dominant regional powers

The New Reality: Syria as a Failed State

Here's what's really happening in Syria right now - the country we once knew has essentially ceased to exist. When Assad fell, it wasn't just a change of government. It was the complete breakdown of Syrian statehood itself.

Sure, Al Galani calls himself president and there are still ministries operating in Damascus. There's still a finance ministry, an industry ministry, even a central bank. But these are just the hollow shells of institutions left over from the Assad era. The reality is that Galani's so-called government has no real authority beyond the militia he brought with him when he marched into Damascus.

What's fascinating is how quickly this has become obvious to outside powers. Israel is now bombing Damascus in broad daylight - something they never dared to do while Assad was in power. That tells you everything you need to know about how the regional balance has shifted. When a country can't even protect its own capital from foreign airstrikes, it's not really a country anymore.

• The Syrian Defense Ministry is essentially just Galani's militia with a fancy name, not a proper national army
• Government institutions continue to exist on paper but lack any meaningful power or resources to function
• Foreign powers are treating Syria as territory to be divided rather than a sovereign nation to be respected
• The speed of institutional collapse has surprised even regional analysts who predicted Syria's fragmentation

This institutional weakness creates a dangerous vacuum. Nature abhors a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. When a state collapses, neighboring powers inevitably move in to fill the void. That's exactly what we're seeing with Israel and Turkey.

Israel's Aggressive Expansion Under Cover of "Protection"

The Israeli military's recent strikes across Syria tell a story that goes far beyond protecting the Druze community. Don't get me wrong - there probably are legitimate concerns about minority communities in Syria. The Druze, Christians, and Alawites have all faced persecution from various militant groups over the years. But Israel's sudden concern for the Druze seems awfully convenient when it aligns perfectly with their strategic objectives.

What we're witnessing is Israel carving out an increasingly large sphere of influence in southern Syria. They're using the Druze situation both as moral justification and as a practical excuse to establish facts on the ground. It's a clever strategy - who's going to argue against protecting a vulnerable minority community?

• Israeli forces are establishing positions that would have been unthinkable to maintain during Assad's rule
• The bombing campaign extends well beyond areas with significant Druze populations, suggesting broader territorial ambitions
• Damascus itself has become a target, marking a dramatic escalation in Israeli operations inside Syria
• Reports suggest some collaboration between Israeli forces and local communities, though the extent remains unclear

The timing is particularly telling. These strikes come as Galani has been bending over backwards to accommodate Israeli concerns. He's been what you might call "conciliatory" - trying to signal that his government poses no threat to Israeli interests. Fat lot of good it's done him.

This reveals something crucial about Israeli strategic thinking right now. They're not interested in deals or accommodations with weak partners. They see an opportunity to expand their security buffer while the cost is low, and they're taking it. Why negotiate when you can simply take what you want?

The Galani Dilemma: Weakness Breeds Aggression

Al Galani finds himself in an impossible position. He's trying to play a game where all the other players hold better cards. On one side, he's got critics within Syria who think he's giving away too much to Israel. On the other side, he's got Israeli jets bombing his capital despite his best efforts at appeasement.

The guy is basically a Turkish puppet - everyone knows Erdogan's backing is what keeps him in power. But even that relationship is complicated because Turkey and Israel have their own complex dynamic playing out behind the scenes. Galani's caught in the middle of a game being played by much more powerful actors.

What's really striking is how the Israeli strikes might actually be helping Galani politically, even if that wasn't the intention. Think about it - he was taking heat from various militias and groups for being too cozy with Israel. Now he can point to the bombing and say, "See? I'm not in their pocket after all. If I were, would they be attacking Damascus?"

• Critics were questioning Galani's legitimacy based on his perceived weakness toward Israel
• The strikes provide convenient cover for his previous conciliatory policies toward Tel Aviv
• His militia lacks the capability to meaningfully resist Israeli operations, exposing fundamental military weakness
• Even reports of him retreating to Idlib suggest he recognizes the precarious nature of his position in Damascus

But here's the thing - weakness invites aggression. The more Galani demonstrates that he can't defend Syrian territory, the more emboldened external actors become. It's a vicious cycle that's hard to break once it starts.

Turkey's Double Game: Erdogan's Master Class in Deception

You've got to hand it to Erdogan - the man is a master at playing multiple sides while keeping everyone guessing about his real intentions. Publicly, he positions himself as the defender of Islam, the great opponent of Israeli aggression. His domestic audience eats it up. But look at what's actually happening behind the scenes, and you see a completely different picture.

Here's something that should make everyone pause and think: when Israel conducted those airstrikes against Iran last month, some of those operations involved Israeli aircraft transiting through Turkish airspace. There's no way that happens without Erdogan's green light. While he was publicly condemning Israeli aggression, he was privately facilitating it.

This is classic Erdogan. He's perfected the art of having his cake and eating it too. He gets to maintain his image as the champion of the Muslim world while actually cooperating with the very forces he claims to oppose. It's cynical, but you have to admire the political skill involved.

• Turkish airspace was used for Israeli operations against Iran while Erdogan publicly condemned the attacks
• The coordination required for such operations suggests extensive behind-the-scenes cooperation between Turkish and Israeli intelligence
• Erdogan's domestic rhetoric serves his political base while his actual policies serve different strategic objectives
• The Syria operation appears to have been coordinated between Turkey, Israel, and the United States from the beginning

In Syria, this dynamic is playing out in real time. Turkey helped orchestrate Assad's removal, working alongside Israel and the United States. Now they're in the process of dividing up the spoils. Erdogan gets to control his puppet Galani while Israel expands its security zone. Everyone wins except the Syrian people.

The Damascus Bombing: Crossing New Red Lines

The fact that Israel is now bombing Damascus in broad daylight represents a fundamental shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics. This isn't some remote border skirmish or a strike on an isolated military facility. This is the bombing of an Arab capital - a city that was once the seat of the Islamic caliphate.

During Assad's rule, such actions would have triggered a regional crisis. There would have been emergency meetings, international condemnation, maybe even military retaliation. Now? It barely registers as news beyond specialist Middle East watchers. That tells you everything about how dramatically the balance of power has shifted.

The symbolism matters here. Damascus isn't just any city - it's one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world, a place with deep historical and religious significance. When you can bomb such a place without serious consequences, you're sending a message that resonates far beyond the immediate tactical objectives.

• The lack of meaningful international response signals broader acceptance of Syria's partition
• Regional powers appear to have concluded that Damascus is no longer under meaningful sovereign protection
• The psychological impact on other regional actors cannot be underestimated - if Damascus can be bombed with impunity, nowhere is safe
• The strikes establish precedents for future operations that would have been unthinkable just months ago

What makes this even more remarkable is that these aren't just hit-and-run strikes. Israel is conducting sustained operations with apparent confidence that there will be no meaningful retaliation. That level of confidence only comes from either overwhelming military superiority or advance coordination with other major players.

The Broader Regional Calculus: Toward a New Middle East

The Syria situation is just the beginning of something much larger. What we're potentially seeing is the emergence of a new regional order based on spheres of influence rather than traditional state sovereignty. It's a return to 19th-century great power politics, but with modern weapons and 21st-century communication.

Erdogan would absolutely love to cut a deal with Israel and the United States to carve up the Middle East into manageable zones of influence. He sees himself as the natural leader of the Sunni Muslim world, and a regional arrangement that formally recognized that role would be a dream come true for him. The question is whether Israel is interested in such a deal.

Right now, Israel seems to be in a particularly aggressive mood. They're riding high from their recent military successes and may feel they don't need to share power with anyone. Why split the Middle East with Turkey when you might be able to dominate it yourself? That's the calculation that seems to be driving Israeli policy at the moment.

• Iran's weakening creates opportunities for other regional powers to expand their influence
• A formal Turkey-Israel understanding could reshape everything from energy corridors to refugee flows
• The United States appears willing to accept such arrangements as long as they serve American strategic interests
• Russia's reduced presence in the region after Ukraine creates additional space for new arrangements

But here's the thing about aggressive strategies - they often create their own opposition. The more aggressively Israel acts, the more likely it becomes that other regional actors will eventually band together to contain that expansion. It's a classic action-reaction dynamic that has played out countless times throughout history.

The wild card in all of this is what happens to the people actually living in these territories being carved up. Syrians have already paid an enormous price for their country's collapse. The prospect of indefinite partition into competing spheres of influence suggests that price is only going to get higher.

Looking ahead, the partition of Syria seems inevitable at this point. The question isn't whether it will happen, but how messy the process will be and whether Damascus itself can survive as a functioning city. The possibilities range from managed transition to complete chaos, and unfortunately, recent Middle Eastern history suggests we should prepare for something closer to the latter.