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European technology leaders are intensifying efforts to secure a foothold in the global quantum computing market, warning that the region faces critical dependency risks if it fails to scale its domestic innovations against U.S. and Chinese dominance. Following pivotal hardware breakthroughs in late 2024 and 2025, executives from top firms including IQM Quantum Computers and Riverlane argue that the window for commercial and geopolitical relevance is narrowing rapidly as the industry shifts from experimental research to scalable product development.
Key Points
- Sovereignty Stakes: Industry leaders warn Europe risks "losing its seat at the table" without stronger industrial engagement and supply chain control.
- Timeline to Viability: Experts project commercially viable quantum systems will emerge by the late 2020s or early 2030s.
- Technical Hurdles: Focus has shifted from qubit quantity to quality, specifically regarding error correction and processor networking.
- Investment Surge: Following the release of Google’s "Willow" chip in December 2024, the sector has seen increased M&A activity and a 50% rise in investment.
The Race for Technological Sovereignty
As the quantum computing sector matures, the geopolitical divide between the U.S., China, and Europe has become a central concern for policymakers and executives alike. Jan Goetz, CEO and Co-founder of IQM Quantum Computers, emphasized that while Europe boasts a high density of quantum startups, it lacks the massive tech incumbents—such as Amazon, Google, or IBM—that drive scaling in the United States.
IQM, which has raised $600 million to date, is actively working to integrate quantum systems into existing supercomputing infrastructure, partnering with hardware giants like Nvidia. However, Goetz argues that scientific excellence alone is insufficient without robust industrial adoption.
"You only create this position of strength if you actually have something that you control... If we lose this race, we will fall into dependencies again. This weakens our standing not only on the business side when it comes to access to the technology, but ultimately on the political level."
The strategic implications extend beyond economics. Quantum computing is viewed as a "dual-use" technology, critical for national defense and cybersecurity, prompting calls for Europe to establish a "sovereign supply chain" to avoid the reliance issues currently seen in the artificial intelligence sector.
Scaling: From Experimentation to Error Correction
The industry reached a turning point following the December 9, 2024, unveiling of Google’s "Willow" quantum chip, which claimed to solve complex problems in minutes that would take supercomputers septillions of years. According to Carmen Palacios-Berraquero, CEO of Nu Quantum, the industry has since moved into a phase of consolidation and scaling.
Palacios-Berraquero noted that 2025 marked a shift where qubit performance finally reached levels necessary for error correction. The challenge now lies in networking these processors to create modular, scalable machines capable of delivering commercial value.
Steve Brierley, founder of Riverlane, highlighted that the primary barrier to mass adoption remains error rates. While current high-end machines can perform approximately 1,000 operations before failure, commercial applications—such as drug discovery or material science—require significantly higher stability.
"To get to large-scale commercial applications, we need trillions of error-free operations. That gap is bridged by a technology called quantum error correction... I think toward the end of this decade is when that switch will happen."
Commercial Implications and Security Risks
Despite the dominance of U.S. capital, European executives remain optimistic about their ability to compete by focusing on specialized components of the quantum stack. The U.K. ecosystem, for instance, has produced global leaders in specific niches: Phasecraft in algorithms, Riverlane in error correction, and Nu Quantum in networking.
Ashley Montanaro, CEO of Phasecraft, pointed out that hardware advances are now allowing algorithms to run with million-fold reductions in cost for certain problems. This progress is expected to unlock value in sectors ranging from battery chemistry to high-temperature superconductors.
The Encryption Shock
The advancing timeline for powerful quantum computers also brings the threat of "Q-Day"—the moment when quantum machines can crack current public encryption standards. Brierley warned that industries relying on long-term data security need to transition to quantum-safe encryption immediately, as the capability to break current codes is likely to arrive in the early 2030s.
Looking Ahead
As the sector heads toward 2030, the focus for European firms will be securing late-stage growth capital and fostering deeper ties with industrial end-users in pharmaceuticals and finance. While U.S. giants continue to lead in cloud-based models, European contenders are betting on on-premise data center integration and specialized hardware to carve out a sustainable market share.
