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Mark Yusko, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, is issuing a stark warning to investors regarding the trajectory of digital assets and the geopolitical landscape through 2026. Challenging the prevailing narrative that the current U.S. political climate favors cryptocurrency, Yusko predicts a continued "crypto winter" driven by market cycles and warns that the administration's priority remains preserving the U.S. dollar's hegemony rather than fostering decentralized finance.
Key Points
- Cyclical Bottom approaching: Yusko adheres to a "3-year, 11-month" block cycle, predicting the Bitcoin market trough will occur around October 2025.
- Political Skepticism: Contrary to popular belief, Yusko argues that President Trump and the current administration are not allies of the crypto industry, citing a focus on centralization and dollar dominance.
- Institutional Manipulation: The investor highlights how futures markets and "spoofing" are suppressing Bitcoin prices, mirroring historical manipulation in gold and silver markets.
- Global Macro Shift: A rotation is expected where U.S. equities underperform while emerging markets, particularly China, capitalize on a massive growing consumer class.
The 2026 Outlook: Cycles Over Sentiment
Despite recent volatility, Yusko remains steadfast in his adherence to the four-year halving cycle—specifically, a cycle he defines as three years and 11 months based on block production. While many analysts argued that the introduction of ETFs created a "cucumber market" of steady ascents, Yusko asserts that human behavior and algorithmic trading have kept the cycle intact.
According to his analysis, the market is currently in a corrective phase that follows the manic "gambler" phase of the previous high. He points to historical data suggesting the market bottom is approximately 360 days from the peak, placing the potential trough near October 1, 2025.
Regarding price targets, Yusko relies on Metcalfe’s Law, which currently places Bitcoin's fair value at approximately $81,000. While the asset is currently trading near or below this fair value, historical patterns suggest the potential for further downside before a recovery.
"Next cycle, if we added a zero, fair value would go to a million... If we look at gold equivalents... I’m pretty comfortable that the next cycle peak, which would be in 2029, is somewhere between $600,000 and $700,000."
Institutional Influence and Market Suppression
A central theme of Yusko’s analysis is the disconnection between supply-demand dynamics in the spot market versus the futures market. He notes that while institutions purchased four times the amount of mined Bitcoin last year via ETFs, prices failed to sustain momentum. He attributes this to the dominance of "paper" derivatives.
Yusko draws parallels to the precious metals market, where futures contracts allowed financial engineers to create artificial supply ("paper gold") to suppress prices. He argues that major financial players are utilizing similar tactics with Bitcoin to keep prices capped, engaging in "spoofing"—placing orders with the intent to cancel them—to manipulate market sentiment.
This suppression, however, creates a coiled spring effect. Yusko suggests that once the "spoofing" breaks and an upward thrust causes a short squeeze, the price action could become parabolic, similar to recent moves in gold and silver.
The Geopolitical Pivot: 'Made for China'
Looking beyond digital assets, Yusko forecasts a significant rotation in global equity performance. He predicts that the traditional safety of U.S. markets will falter over the next decade, giving way to emerging markets. He specifically highlights China’s strategic pivot from being the world’s manufacturer ("Made in China") to servicing its own massive internal demand ("Made for China").
With a middle class of roughly 750 million people, China's consumption potential dwarfs that of the U.S. and Europe combined. Yusko believes that Chinese equities, along with markets in Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia, are positioned to outperform U.S. stocks, which he views as overvalued and heavily reliant on the "Mag Seven" technology giants.
The Japanese Yen Dilemma
Yusko also flags Japan as a critical area of instability, referring to it as the "Great Balls of Fire" scenario. He argues that Japan’s attempt to strengthen the Yen while holding massive debt is mathematically impossible without crashing their stock and bond markets. The unwinding of the Yen carry trade represents a significant liquidity risk to global markets.
Regulatory Headwinds and the Dollar Agenda
Perhaps most controversially, Yusko pushes back against the optimism surrounding the current U.S. administration's stance on crypto. He warns that legislation such as the proposed "Clarity Act" or "Genius Act" may ostensibly offer regulation but actually serves as a vehicle for centralization.
Yusko posits that the ultimate goal of the U.S. government is to protect the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency against rising competitors like the Chinese Renminbi. In this context, decentralized cryptocurrencies are viewed as a threat rather than an asset class to be nurtured.
"Everyone thinks the president is our friend... He’s not. He has a whole different agenda... It’s all about preserving the dollar hegemony... The Clarity Act as written is a non-starter because it takes us down the path of CBDCs and centralization."
He warns that future regulations could restrict self-custody or favor centralized stablecoin issuers (like USDC) over decentralized alternatives, potentially creating a "digital gulag" where financial freedom is curtailed under the guise of safety.
Investors are advised to monitor the support levels around $58,000 for Bitcoin as a critical indicator of the ongoing correction, while maintaining a diversified view that includes emerging markets and commodities to hedge against U.S. dollar volatility.
