Table of Contents
The recent abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has sent shockwaves through the international community, raising urgent questions about the trajectory of United States foreign policy. In a recent discussion, Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and counter-terrorism expert, joined Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou to dissect the operational oddities and strategic blunders behind this move. The conversation revealed a disturbing picture of an administration potentially acting on flawed intelligence, improvising critical military decisions, and shifting from traditional diplomacy to what can only be described as unalloyed predatory imperialism. This analysis explores the mechanics of the operation, its connection to looming conflicts with Iran, and the broader geopolitical fallout.
Key Takeaways
- Operational Improvisation: The extraction of Maduro appears to have been a "snatch and grab" operation lacking a coherent post-regime plan, leaving the Venezuelan government largely intact and defiant.
- The Iran Connection: Analysts suggest the move on Venezuela is strategic preparation to secure oil reserves in anticipation of a conflict with Iran and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Intelligence Failures: US policy is increasingly driven by "operators" rather than analysts, leading to decisions based on wishful thinking regarding regime collapse in nations like Iran and Russia.
- NATO Stability: The Trump administration's signaled interest in acquiring Greenland poses a significant threat to NATO unity, potentially alienating Denmark and other European allies.
- The "Polk Doctrine": The US has effectively abandoned the non-interventionist roots of the Monroe Doctrine in favor of a "might is right" approach that dictates who sovereign nations may associate with.
The Mechanics of the Venezuela Operation
From a tactical perspective, the operation to seize Nicolás Maduro presented several anomalies that puzzled experts. Larry Johnson, drawing on 23 years of experience scripting counter-terrorism exercises for elite units like Delta Force and SEAL Team 6, noted the unusual timing of the raid.
Operational Oddities
The operation was launched on a moonlit night, contradicting standard procedure which favors complete darkness to maximize the advantage of night vision technology. Furthermore, the infiltration of numerous helicopters into the mountainous terrain surrounding Caracas—a city Johnson describes as sitting in a "toilet bowl" of topography—occurred without encountering anti-aircraft fire. This strongly suggests significant assistance from elements within the Venezuelan security services.
The United States is like a bad jazz band, you know, just improvising in the moment.
Despite the successful extraction of Maduro, the operation failed to trigger a collapse of the Venezuelan government. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and other key figures remain in power, continuing the administration's policies. This outcome mirrors previous US interventions in Panama and Iraq, where the removal of a leader was achieved without a viable plan for the ensuing power vacuum or governance, resulting in long-term chaos rather than the intended swift transition.
The Iran Nexus and the Oil Fallacy
A critical undercurrent of the Venezuela operation is its potential link to escalating tensions with Iran. The timing of the operation, following meetings between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, and Benjamin Netanyahu, suggests a coordinated geopolitical maneuver. The prevailing theory is that by seizing Venezuela, the US aims to secure a massive oil reserve to offset global shortages should a war with Iran lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Misunderstanding Global Energy
However, this strategy relies on a fundamental misunderstanding of industrial oil production. As noted during the discussion, one cannot simply "pull a lever" and flood the market with oil from the Orinoco Basin. The infrastructure required to extract and refine heavy Venezuelan crude is complex and cannot be ramped up instantaneously to mitigate a global energy crisis triggered by conflict in the Persian Gulf.
Flawed Intelligence on Iran
Concurrently, Western media has amplified reports of protests in Iran, suggesting the Islamic Republic is on the brink of collapse. Johnson and Mercouris argue this narrative is largely manufactured, sourced from opposition groups like the MEK (Mujahedin-e-Khalq), and represents an intelligence failure where propaganda is mistaken for fact.
When you put analysts together with operators... the operators prevail.
This dynamic creates a dangerous feedback loop where policymakers are told what they want to hear—that a simple "push" will topple a regime—leading to military miscalculations based on false premises.
From Monroe to "Might is Right"
The justification for US intervention in Venezuela signals a profound shift in diplomatic doctrine. The original Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s was fundamentally anti-interventionist, designed to prevent European meddling in the Western Hemisphere while pledging US non-interference in existing colonies. The modern application, however, resembles what Johnson terms the "Polk Doctrine"—referencing President James K. Polk's expansionist policies in the 1840s.
The current rhetoric coming from Washington is no longer couched in moral or strategic necessity but is presented as naked predatory imperialism. The message is clear: the US claims the right to dictate the foreign relations of sovereign Latin American nations, specifically regarding their ties with China, Russia, and Iran. This approach treats the hemisphere not as a neighborhood of partners, but as a collection of vassal states subject to US resource extraction.
The Expansionist Agenda: Greenland and NATO Unity
Beyond Venezuela, the discussion highlighted a worrying expansion of US territorial ambitions, specifically regarding Greenland. The Trump administration's signaled intent to acquire the territory—or force a confrontation over it—threatens to fracture the NATO alliance.
Denmark, a NATO member, views Greenland as integral to its sovereignty. An aggressive US move to annex or "purchase" the island against Denmark's will would undermine the very premise of the alliance. While NATO officials often project unity, such a violation of a member state's territorial integrity could prove to be the organization's breaking point. Johnson likens the current US foreign policy posture to a self-destructive behavior requiring an "intervention."
We need an intervention with the United States... we can't keep our hands to ourselves.
The "Great Man" Fallacy in Intelligence
A recurring theme in recent US foreign policy is the "Great Man" fallacy—the belief that removing a single figurehead (Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Nicolás Maduro, or Vladimir Putin) will resolve complex geopolitical antagonisms and result in a compliant, pro-Western government.
This mindset fails to account for:
- Institutional Resilience: Governments often have deep-rooted bureaucracies and military structures that persist or mutate after a leader is removed.
- National Sentiment: External intervention frequently galvanizes the population against the occupier rather than liberating them.
- Complex Alliances: Nations like Venezuela have strengthened ties with Russia and China precisely to insulate themselves against such decapitation strikes.
The assumption that removing Putin would lead to a collapse of the Russian Federation, for example, ignores the reality that his potential successors might be even more hardline. Similarly, the removal of Maduro has not erased the Chavista movement or the structural reality of the Venezuelan state.
Conclusion
The operation in Venezuela serves as a microcosm of a broader, more volatile US foreign policy strategy. It reveals a superpower willing to bypass international law and diplomatic norms in favor of direct action, driven by an urgent desire to check the influence of rival powers like China and Russia. However, this approach carries immense risks.
By relying on flawed intelligence, ignoring the logistical realities of global energy markets, and alienating allies through expansionist rhetoric, the US risks not only military quagmires but also the acceleration of a multipolar world order. As countries witness the events in Caracas, the incentive to strengthen deterrents and deepen alliances outside the Western sphere of influence has never been higher.
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