Israel-Hamas War Reaches Crossroads as Trump Administration Sidelines Netanyahu

Israeli journalist Haviv Rettig Gur reveals how Trump's team is bypassing Israel's government while pursuing direct regional deals to end the Gaza conflict.

After 588 days of war, the Trump administration is negotiating directly with Hamas through Qatar while openly questioning Netanyahu's competence to resolve the hostage crisis.

Key Takeaways

• Trump administration secured Eden Alexander's release without Israeli involvement, signaling Netanyahu's diminished role in regional negotiations
• Qatar's treatment of American hostages improved immediately after Trump's election, demonstrating their leverage over Hamas operations
• Israeli military strategy shifted from raid-and-withdraw to territorial occupation as timeline pressures mount from Trump's demands for resolution
• Hamas cannot surrender final hostages without losing all leverage, creating strategic deadlock that only complete military defeat can resolve
• Regional Arab allies are preparing post-war governance plans for Gaza that exclude Hamas leadership but require Israeli cooperation
• Trump's Middle East diplomacy prioritizes economic deals over ideological alignment, securing potential $1.8 trillion in regional investments
• Palestinian-Israeli mutual distrust reaches 90% on both sides, with each population believing the other seeks total elimination
• Qatar's $400 million gift of Boeing 747 to Trump highlights concerning influence-buying operations throughout Washington establishment

Timeline Overview

• Opening Discussion — Eden Alexander's release bypasses Israel; Trump questions Netanyahu's competence in hostage negotiations
• Strategic Analysis — Hamas ideology rooted in Muslim Brotherhood requires defeat both militarily and ideologically to end conflict
• Military Situation — IDF shifts from raiding to occupation strategy; 70-80% of Hamas fighting forces reportedly destroyed
• Regional Dynamics — Trump secures massive investment deals across Gulf states while making controversial concessions to Qatar
• Future Prospects — Two-state solution faces 90% mutual distrust; only path forward requires fundamental reorientation of Palestinian politics

Netanyahu Loses Influence as Trump Bypasses Israeli Government

• The Trump administration secured American hostage Eden Alexander's release through Qatar without coordinating with Israeli officials, marking a significant shift in regional diplomatic dynamics
• Trump publicly stated "I don't know if Netanyahu can get the hostages out," representing unprecedented criticism from a traditionally pro-Israel president
• Israeli political cartoons now depict Netanyahu alone while Trump engages directly with regional leaders, reflecting widespread recognition of his marginalization
• Steve Witkoff reportedly told hostage families that Israel "is not ready to end the war," creating public tension between the allies
• Netanyahu's strategy of ruling "without saying anything ever to anyone" has become incompatible with Trump's demand for clear endgame strategies
• The Israeli government lacks coordination on existential issues like Iran nuclear negotiations, where Americans are independently pursuing deals

Hamas Strategy Designed to Weaponize Gaza's Destruction

• Hamas constructed the largest tunnel network in history specifically to force enemies through civilian areas, making Gaza's destruction central to their war strategy
• The organization views Palestinian civilian casualties as costs imposed on Israel rather than Hamas, fundamentally altering traditional deterrence calculations
• Hamas leadership publicly rejected American-Saudi proposals for post-war governance, declaring "October 7 was our great triumph and there will be more October 7th"
• Kamas cannot release final hostages without losing all leverage, creating strategic deadlock where only complete military defeat offers resolution
• The ideology traces back to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, representing broader theological struggle within Islam between modernizing and radical conservative interpretations
• Hamas deliberately triggered this war expecting to destroy Israel through international pressure, but instead trapped Gaza in permanent conflict

Israeli Military Operations Intensify Under Time Pressure

• IDF strategy shifted from hit-and-run raids to sustained territorial occupation as Trump administration demands faster resolution
• Military commanders report destroying 70-80% of Hamas fighting forces, but acknowledge guerrilla warfare typically requires longer degradation periods
• The American-led coalition against ISIS in Iraq took five years of similar urban warfare, highlighting unrealistic expectations for quick Gaza resolution
• Israeli forces now face legal responsibilities for civilian welfare in occupied territories, creating additional operational complexities
• Ammunition shortages force Hamas to abandon public celebrations where they previously fired into the air, demonstrating severe resource constraints
• New occupation strategy aims to completely dismantle tunnel networks rather than temporary disruption achieved through raiding operations

Qatar Emerges as Central Power Broker Despite Terrorist Financing

• Qatar's improvement of hostage treatment immediately following Trump's election demonstrates direct control over Hamas operations in Gaza tunnels
• The Gulf state leverages its position between Iranian influence and American investment to maximize strategic value despite ideological contradictions
• Trump received a $400 million Boeing 747 gift from Qatar while praising their "unbreakable" relationship, raising ethical concerns about influence operations
• Multiple Trump administration officials previously worked as registered lobbyists for Qatar, creating potential conflicts of interest in policy formation
• Qatar funds Al Jazeera as its primary soft power projection tool and maintains the largest American military base in the region
• The nation operates similar to Saudi Arabia pre-9/11, spreading radical interpretations of Islam globally while maintaining Western business partnerships

Trump's Transactional Middle East Diplomacy Yields Massive Investments

• Regional tour generated approximately $1.8 trillion in potential American investments over Trump's term, with $3.4 trillion total commitments
• Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar all announced major infrastructure and technology investments in exchange for security guarantees
• Trump's approach emphasizes economic partnerships over ideological alignment, declaring "America's for sale" to willing investors
• The strategy reflects humility about American understanding of regional complexities while leveraging commercial relationships for influence
• Saudi Arabia uses massive investments to purchase American alliance against Iranian threats, recognizing their military weaknesses despite expensive equipment
• Trump skipped Israel during regional tour because no significant economic deals were available, focusing purely on transactional diplomacy

Two-State Solution Faces Unprecedented Obstacles

• Polling shows 90% of Israeli Jews believe Palestinians seek total Jewish elimination, while 90% of Palestinians believe Jews seek their destruction
• Hamas deliberately targeted peace processes through terrorism rather than occupation, convincing Israelis that Palestinian leadership rejects coexistence
• Any viable solution requires fundamental reorientation of Palestinian politics toward Gandhian non-violence rather than continued armed resistance
• Israeli military rule in West Bank cannot be permanent solution, but security concerns prevent withdrawal without credible peace partner
• Syrian normalization with Israel might provide model for regional integration if new leadership proves genuinely committed to peaceful coexistence
• Zionism remains compatible with Palestinian self-determination if territorial arrangements can address mutual security concerns effectively

Common Questions

Q: Can Hamas actually be defeated militarily and ideologically?
A: Yes, through destroying their military capacity while promoting alternative Islamic interpretations that reject radical conservative theology.

Q: Why did Trump bypass Israel in hostage negotiations?
A: The administration views Netanyahu's government as incompetent and unwilling to make necessary decisions for conflict resolution.

Q: What does Qatar gain from massive American investments?
A: Safety for their small population through soft power influence while advancing Muslim Brotherhood ideology globally.

Q: Is a two-state solution still possible?
A: Theoretically yes, but requires fundamental changes in Palestinian strategy and Israeli willingness to end West Bank occupation.

Q: How does Trump's Middle East strategy differ from his first term?
A: More transactional focus on economic deals rather than ideological alignment, with less patience for Israeli government dysfunction.

The Gaza war has reached a strategic inflection point where Hamas cannot surrender without losing all leverage, while Israel cannot accept partial victory that leaves the organization intact. Trump's willingness to bypass traditional allies in pursuit of regional deals may force all parties toward more decisive action than previous diplomatic approaches achieved.