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Global markets are witnessing a sharp divergence this week as gold and copper initiate major technical breakouts, while the cryptocurrency sector faces potential liquidity traps despite short-term relief rallies. Against a backdrop of escalating political tension between the Federal Reserve and the incoming administration, investors are pivoting toward commodities and specific tech stocks, with technical indicators suggesting significant volatility ahead for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Key Points
- Commodities Surge: Gold has broken out of a multi-year ascending triangle with price targets set at $4,686 and $5,000, while copper confirms a massive "cup and handle" pattern targeting $8.
- Tech Sector Resilience: The Nasdaq is holding critical support levels despite lagging behind the S&P 500, with market sentiment bolstered by expectations of interest rate cuts amidst Trump-Powell legal tensions.
- Bitcoin's Bearish Outlook: Analysts warn of a "Kiss of Death" relief rally to the $97,000–$98,000 range, which could precede a macro correction toward $33,000 by late 2025.
- Altcoin Divergence: While privacy coin Monero (XMR) posts strong gains, the broader altcoin market—including Ethereum and Zcash—shows signs of "complacency bounces" before further downside.
Commodities Rally: Gold and Copper Signal Major Upside
Precious and industrial metals have emerged as the clear leaders in the current market cycle. Gold is currently breaking out of a long-term ascending triangle pattern—a technical formation characterized by a significant rally followed by consolidation and tightening volatility. Analysts suggest this breakout mirrors previous historical cycles where price acceleration followed similar consolidation periods.
Technical projections for gold have established near-term profit-taking zones at $4,686, with a psychological and technical extension target of $5,000 per ounce. Silver has also hit record highs; however, market data suggests the metal is currently overextended, prompting calls for profit-taking and capital rotation back into gold or platinum.
Copper is displaying one of the most bullish setups in the commodities sector. The industrial metal is breaking out of a massive "cup and handle" formation on the weekly timeframe. This technical confirmation points to a sustained rally, with analysts forecasting a price target of $8.00.
Equities Market: Tech Stability Amidst Fed Controversy
While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average continue to set higher highs, the technology-heavy Nasdaq has lagged. However, the index recently successfully tested and held a critical support trendline between $608 and $612. Maintaining this level is viewed as a bullish signal, potentially offering a risk-to-reward ratio of 3:1 for long positions targeting new all-time highs.
The Trump-Powell Dynamic
Market sentiment is being partially driven by unprecedented friction between the executive branch and the central bank. Reports indicate that former President Trump is seeking grounds for criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies. In a rare public defense, Powell stated he is being targeted for executing his mandate, signaling he will not resign. Despite the political noise, the market appears to be pricing in future rate cuts, which remains a net positive for equities.
Stock Specifics: Apple and Tesla
Apple (AAPL): Following a short-selling strategy, technical analysis suggests the stock is due for a bounce. However, heavy resistance at the breakdown level suggests traders should lock in 25% to 50% of profits on short positions rather than betting on a full reversal.
Tesla (TSLA): The EV maker is testing a critical support zone near $400. If this level holds, technical patterns mirror that of Monero, suggesting a potential upside target of $720. However, a break below current lows would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Cryptocurrency: The Risk of a "Kiss of Death"
The digital asset market remains in a precarious position, characterized by low volume, declining volatility, and minimal liquidations. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading below its 21-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish trend.
Analysts are closely monitoring a potential relief rally that could push Bitcoin toward the $97,000 to $98,000 region. This move is described technically as a "Kiss of Death"—a retest of broken support turning into resistance—before a continuation of the downtrend. Historical data from previous bear markets (2014, 2018) indicates that drawdowns often reach approximately 83%. Based on Ichimoku Cloud analysis and historical returns, a bottom near $33,000 is projected, potentially occurring around October 2025.
"When you see a bearish cross on the weekly Ichimoku cloud, historical data shows a 68% drop from the cross point. This aligns with a target of roughly $33,000, which would mark a major market bottom."
Ethereum (ETH) is exhibiting similar weakness, trapped in a falling wedge pattern. While a short-term bounce to $3,600 is possible, the broader trend remains negative unless it can reclaim previous structural highs.
Regulatory Landscape and Altcoin Divergence
The cryptocurrency market is bracing for the Senate vote on the "Clarity Act" scheduled for the 15th of the month. This legislation aims to eliminate wash trading and enforce strict liability on reserve practices. While intended to clean up the market, the removal of artificial volume could expose the true lack of liquidity in many altcoins, potentially leading to further price corrections.
Monero (XMR) remains a notable outlier, surging 19% recently with total gains of nearly 50% since its breakout. Its chart structure, resembling a "cup and handle," targets $733. Conversely, assets like Zcash appear to be experiencing "complacency bounces," where price increases are likely opportunities for traders to initiate short positions rather than signs of genuine recovery.
Market Outlook
Investors are advised to exercise extreme caution in the crypto sector, specifically watching for a rejection at the $98,000 Bitcoin level. In equities, the Nasdaq's ability to close above its downtrend line will be the key determinant for the next leg of the tech rally. Economic data releases this week, including CPI and retail sales, alongside the upcoming Senate vote on crypto regulation, are expected to inject volatility into these compressing markets.
