Dangerous times w/ Larry Johnson (Live)

In a period marked by profound geopolitical shifts and escalating tensions, a recent discussion featuring Larry Johnson and Alexander Mccuris offered a stark assessment of global affairs. Delving into simultaneous conflicts, diplomatic impasses, and the complex web of international relations, their insights expose critical vulnerabilities and misconceptions driving current events. From the volatile situation with Iran to the protracted conflict in Ukraine and even the reverberations of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, the conversation paints a picture of a world in flux, challenging established narratives and underscoring the deep-seated issues at play.

Key Takeaways

• Iran Conflict Avoidance: Despite immense pressure, former President Trump reportedly resisted calls for military action against Iran, acknowledging the significant military limitations of the United States in the region and Iran's advanced defense capabilities.
• Ukraine War's Trajectory: Russia is increasingly frustrated with diplomatic efforts, perceiving a lack of genuine concession from the US, and appears determined to resolve the conflict militarily, potentially expanding its territorial control.
• Intelligence Failures: The US intelligence apparatus is reportedly providing misleading information to policymakers, affecting critical decisions on conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, reminiscent of past deceptions.
• Epstein Scandal Cover-up: The handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case reveals a persistent, high-level effort to conceal information, implicating powerful figures and underscoring a crisis of public trust and accountability.
• Shifting Global Power: The rise of BRICS nations and the economic strength of the Global South signal a definitive end to Western dominance, with Europe's military and industrial capabilities rapidly eroding.

The Shadow of Escalation: Iran and the US

The geopolitical landscape is currently fraught with dual crises, one prominently involving Iran and the United States. Larry Johnson detailed the intense pressure on former President Trump to initiate military action against Iran, particularly after recent talks. However, in a surprising turn, Trump reportedly held firm against these calls, opting for further dialogue.

"I thought that yesterday's meeting would really have been a planning session for the next round of attacks or at least coordinating what was going to be an imminent attack. Instead, uh Trump, to his credit, held the line um and said, 'No, we're going to we're going to talk to Iran one more time.'"Larry Johnson

This decision, Johnson suggests, may stem from a belated recognition within the Pentagon of the US military's significant limitations in confronting Iran. Despite powerful carrier strike groups, their operational range for effective missile strikes is limited, and closer proximity exposes them to Iran's robust defense capabilities, which are far more sophisticated than those of groups like the Houthis.

Military Realities vs. Delusions

There appears to be a profound disconnect between the perceived and actual military capabilities of the United States, especially concerning Iran. Discussions with senior military figures reportedly reveal an "out of touch with reality" assessment of mission feasibility, such as easily neutralizing Iran's extensive ballistic missile arsenal.

"I can't emphasize enough how um out of touch with reality the senior senior people are in the United States... I wanted to ask him how did how did we do with the Houthies there? I mean we were trying to take out mobile missile launchers with the Houthies and we failed. We utterly the United States utterly failed."Larry Johnson

Iran possesses a vast, underground, and mobile missile infrastructure, making it an exceptionally challenging target. Past conflicts, like the 12-day war where Iran fired over a thousand missiles, demonstrated Israel's vulnerability despite claims of high interception rates. This reality suggests that a direct confrontation could lead to devastating consequences for US bases in the region, which lack adequate defense against Iran's diverse ballistic missile types.

Historical Antagonism and Misconceptions

The persistent US antagonism towards Iran, despite Iran posing no direct threat to the American homeland, is rooted in a deeply ingrained and often distorted historical narrative. The prevailing US view often simplifies complex events, such as the 1979 hostage crisis, as an unprovoked attack, ignoring decades of US interference in Iranian internal affairs.

• Narrative Control: The US media has historically perpetuated a narrative of Iran as an "irredeemable terrorist state," overshadowing America's role in undermining Iranian sovereignty.
• Iran-Iraq War: The US actively supported Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, even supplying chemical precursors, leading to hundreds of thousands of Iranian casualties—a reality often overlooked in Western discourse.
• Counter-Terrorism Paradox: Iran has actively fought Islamic extremism, often the same groups the US has identified as threats, yet the US continues to portray Iran as a primary menace.

Diplomatic Pathways and Obstacles

Despite the prevailing hostility, Johnson believes a diplomatic resolution with Iran remains possible, particularly if former President Trump views it as a political victory. Iran has shown willingness to engage, even considering concessions on uranium enrichment and inspections similar to the JCPOA agreement, albeit with increased participation from Russia and China.

However, significant hurdles remain, primarily from powerful Zionist and Christian Zionist lobbies that push for Iran's destruction, often disregarding the military's actual capabilities. This ideological pressure, combined with a "self-delusion" about American military might, complicates any genuine move towards peace.

Ukraine: A Deepening Crisis of Deception

The conflict in Ukraine is reaching a critical juncture, with Russia expressing profound frustration over the stalled diplomatic process. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has repeatedly voiced concerns that the US has reneged on understandings reached in earlier negotiations, suggesting a fundamental shift in Russia's approach.

Russian Frustration with Negotiations

Larry Johnson notes that Lavrov's unusually strong and consistent public statements signal a definitive change in the Russian position. This hardened stance likely stems from a perception that the US has offered no concrete concessions and cannot be trusted in negotiations, particularly after alleged breakdowns in previous agreements.

• Abandoned Agreements: Lavrov consistently references a tentative agreement from April 2022 that would have kept Donetsk and Luhansk as part of Ukraine, an agreement allegedly sabotaged by US and British intervention.
• Lack of Concessions: Russia highlights the absence of meaningful gestures from the US, such as the return of confiscated property or easing sanctions, further eroding trust.
• Putin's Directive: Lavrov's repeated public pronouncements are understood as a direct message from President Putin, indicating a shift away from diplomatic resolution on Western terms.

The Information War and US Miscalculations

A critical factor exacerbating the Ukraine crisis is the prevalence of misinformation within US intelligence. Policymakers, including former President Trump, are reportedly being fed "outright lies" about the situation on the ground, leading to flawed policy decisions.

"The CIA is lying. Outright lying... Donald Trump is being told outright lies and not being given the honest objective picture about what's going on the ground."Larry Johnson

This systemic issue, according to Johnson, is partly due to a structural change within the CIA a decade ago that integrated analysts into operations, creating pressure to align intelligence with operational goals rather than objective truth. Such distortions mimic past intelligence failures, notably in Vietnam and Afghanistan, where casualties were massively overreported, and enemy capabilities underestimated.

The Path to a Military Resolution

Given the perceived intransigence and deception, both Larry Johnson and Alexander Mccuris agree that the Ukraine war is unlikely to end through diplomatic means. Russia is preparing for a military solution, with conditions becoming progressively tougher for Ukraine.

• Russia's Advancing Terms: Putin's initial conditions for peace have been rejected, and future terms are expected to include further territorial gains, potentially encompassing major cities like Dnipro, Poltava, Kyiv, and Odesa.
• Ukraine's Resource Depletion: Ukraine faces severe resource and manpower shortages, with inadequate training for new recruits. Russia, in contrast, is rapidly scaling up its military production, far surpassing Ukraine's capabilities.
• Corruption and External Influence: Ukrainian leadership is seen as influenced by "other interests" that profit from the war, rather than prioritizing a negotiated peace, with President Zelensky described as an "actor" playing a role.

The Epstein Scandal: Unraveling Deep State Ties

Beyond the geopolitical conflicts, the Jeffrey Epstein scandal continues to expose a disturbing network of power, privilege, and alleged criminality. The recent congressional hearings involving Pam Bondi highlighted a deeply flawed and seemingly intentional effort to obscure the truth.

The Persistent Cover-up and Public Disregard

The handling of the Epstein affair, particularly by figures associated with the Trump administration, has been characterized by incompetence and a clear intent to "cover it up." Pam Bondi's shifting narrative regarding the existence and contents of Epstein's files further fueled public distrust. The public cares deeply about this issue, yet official responses are often "impossibly lame" and contradictory.

"If you're going to lie, at least be good at it. And she's not good at it."Larry Johnson

The scandal, far from fading, keeps resurfacing due to the sheer volume of documents and witness testimonies that name specific, prominent individuals. This information, often compiled by independent researchers from court transcripts, directly contradicts official claims of "no list" or "no evidence."

Implications for Trust and Accountability

The scandal's reach extends into the highest echelons of power, with implications for political figures, intelligence agencies, and even former presidents. Larry Johnson points to Epstein's alleged ties to both Mossad and the CIA, potentially dating back to the Iran-Contra affair, suggesting a deep state connection that complicates official investigations.

• High-Profile Involvement: Numerous prominent individuals are implicated in the trafficking and abuse of underage women, with some connections reaching directly to the former First Family.
• Unanswered Questions: The circumstances surrounding Epstein's death in prison, occurring under the Trump presidency, remain highly suspicious and contribute to speculation about foul play.
• Failure of Justice: The failure to prosecute key figures like John Brennan and James Clapper, despite past campaign promises, is cited as another example of a broken justice system.
• Incompetent Handling: Critics argue the scandal could have been managed by appearing to take action, but the attempt at a complete shutdown only magnified the public's outrage and suspicion.

Geopolitical Realignments: The Decline of Western Hegemony

The ongoing conflicts and revelations are not isolated incidents but symptoms of a larger global transformation. The era of Western dominance, particularly that of the United States and Europe, is demonstrably waning, giving way to a multipolar world order led by emerging powers.

The Shift to Multipolarity and BRICS Expansion

Larry Johnson emphasizes that the world is undeniably changing. The concept of multipolarity, frequently articulated by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, describes a global system where power is distributed among multiple major centers, rather than being concentrated in the West.

• Economic Power Shift: The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) now collectively outpace the G7 in economic strength, a transformation that has accelerated significantly in the last decade.
• New Economic Order: China's increasing gold reserves and the growing use of the yuan in international trade directly challenge the preeminence of the US dollar and the post-World War II Bretton Woods system.
• Global South's Ascent: Economic opportunities are rapidly shifting to the Global South, where countries like Mali and Niger are finding greater prosperity after disengaging from Western influence.

Eroding Military and Economic Dominance

The military and industrial capabilities of Europe, once formidable, are now described as significantly diminished. Examples like the UK's struggles with naval deployments and the collapse of joint fighter projects between Germany and France highlight this decline. Europe's former industrial power, particularly Germany, can no longer independently produce cutting-edge defense technologies.

"The world is changing and the world in which Europe once dominated has has moved on and we're we're willing and this has been the theme of what Lavrov's talking about this multipolarity this this new world that's emerging with Russia, China, India the that that's where all the wealth is going..."Larry Johnson

The US military, while still powerful, faces inventory limitations and practical challenges, as demonstrated by its struggles against the Houthis in the Red Sea. This erosion of military strength, combined with a declining industrial base, makes the West less capable of projecting force and maintaining control globally.

US Intelligence: A History of Misinformation and Self-Delusion

A recurring theme in the discussion is the critical flaw within the US intelligence community, which consistently produces and disseminates inaccurate or deliberately misleading information to its leaders. This issue, deeply rooted in history, continues to undermine effective policymaking.

Current Lies Regarding Russia and Ukraine

Policymakers are reportedly being fed "outright lies" about the economic and military situation in Russia and Ukraine. Claims of a teetering Russian economy or massive Russian casualties are propagated despite evidence to the contrary. This deliberate misrepresentation directly impacts the ability of leaders like Trump to make informed decisions.

The Undermining of Analytical Integrity within the CIA

Larry Johnson traces the origins of this problem back a decade, when analytical and operational divisions within the CIA were merged. This structural change created an environment where analysts are pressured to support ongoing operations rather than provide objective, unvarnished assessments.

• Promotional Incentives: Analysts face pressure to report positively on operations, as career advancement can be tied to the perceived success of those projects, regardless of actual outcomes.
• Historical Parallels: This situation mirrors past instances, such as during the Vietnam War, where analysts who disputed official narratives faced immense pressure to conform.
• "Team Player" Pressure: Intelligence professionals who offer dissenting views are often sidelined or accused of not being "team players," stifling critical analysis.

Reliance on Liaison Reporting Over Human Sources

The quality of intelligence gathering has reportedly declined. In contrast to earlier decades when human sources were prioritized, much of today's intelligence relies on "liaison reporting"—information received from allied nations like Ukraine. This data is often relayed without independent verification, leading to biased and uncorroborated reports.

• Lack of Independent Verification: Reports from allies are frequently accepted at face value, without the rigorous independent corroboration that would expose inaccuracies.
• Distorted Ground Picture: This reliance means that intelligence assessments may reflect the political agendas or self-serving interests of the reporting parties, rather than objective reality on the ground.
• Inability to Counter Propaganda: The absence of independent, verifiable data leaves policymakers vulnerable to propaganda and prevents a true understanding of unfolding events.

Consequences of Bad Information on Policy Decisions

The ultimate consequence of this systemic misinformation is poor policy. When leaders are given an inaccurate picture of reality, their decisions inevitably lead to adverse outcomes, perpetuating conflicts and undermining national interests. The United States continues to make "bad policy decisions" because its leaders are operating under false pretenses.

Conclusion

The current global landscape, as analyzed by Larry Johnson and Alexander Mccuris, is defined by profound uncertainty and systemic dysfunction. From the dangerous brinkmanship with Iran to the intractable conflict in Ukraine, and the unsettling implications of the Epstein scandal, a consistent thread emerges: a crisis of truth and accountability within Western leadership and intelligence. As the world transitions to a multipolar order, the West's diminishing military and economic power, coupled with its internal struggles with deception and self-delusion, underscores a critical need for realism and introspection. Without a fundamental shift towards honest assessment and genuine diplomacy, the path ahead appears fraught with continued conflict and the erosion of trust, both domestically and internationally.