“Bitcoin Is Finished & I'm Shorting It To Zero.”

Prominent trader Brendan, known for accurately predicting the October 10 market pivot, has reaffirmed his bearish stance on the cryptocurrency market while advocating for a continued rotation into commodities. In a recent detailed analysis, Brendan outlined why he believes the crypto sector has exhausted its bullish catalysts and why capital is fleeing digital assets in favor of gold and silver, citing technical market structures and a lack of fresh narratives as primary drivers for the divergence.

Key Market Insights

• Significant Divergence: Since October 10, Bitcoin has corrected approximately 40% and altcoins have dropped nearly 70%, while gold has rallied 42% and silver has surged over 200%.
• Bearish Structure: Bitcoin has broken critical uptrend structures, establishing a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that suggests the asset has topped out for the foreseeable future.
• Commodities Strategy: The trader’s strategy relies on "asymmetry," specifically longing assets breaking multi-year all-time highs, such as gold at $3,500 and silver at $50.
• Critical Support Levels: The $72,000 to $74,000 zone is identified as the "do or die" level for Bitcoin; failure to hold this could trigger a slide toward the $40,000 range.

The End of the Crypto Uptrend

According to Brendan, the cryptocurrency market has shifted from a multi-year uptrend into a decisive bearish structure. His analysis relies heavily on objective market structure—specifically the formation of higher highs and higher lows to confirm a bull market, or the inverse to confirm a bear market. He notes that Bitcoin has failed to reclaim all-time highs with strength, instead "sweeping" highs and failing to hold support levels, a classic signal of a trend reversal.

The trader emphasizes that previous price surges were driven by specific catalysts: the launch of spot ETFs, the election of Donald Trump, and the narrative surrounding Digital Asset Treasuries. With these events now in the past, the market lacks a driver for new liquidity.

"I try to think about the market as objectively as I can. But I have a hard time seeing us getting back to all-time highs at any point. I think it is pretty unlikely. There is not really any more catalyst left in crypto... limits to the Ponzomics financial mechanisms to print money."

While his phrase "shorting to zero" is hyperbole intended to express extreme bearish sentiment, Brendan clarifies that he does not expect the asset to literally vanish. However, he sees Bitcoin behaving as high-beta growth tech that is currently underperforming during both risk-on and risk-off macroeconomic environments.

The Rotation into Commodities

In stark contrast to the weakness in digital assets, the commodities sector has demonstrated what Brendan describes as a textbook asymmetric trade. His entry into the metals market was predicated on a strategy of buying breakouts at all-time highs—a counter-intuitive move for many retail investors, but one that defines strong momentum.

The technical breakout of gold above $3,500 and silver clearing a 45-year resistance at $50 served as the primary signals. Unlike crypto, which is currently plagued by supply overhang from institutional holders and Digital Asset Treasuries potentially liquidating positions, metals have maintained a bullish structure of higher highs.

Brendan notes that while he has taken profits on silver following its parabolic move and recent pullback to the $88 range, the high-time-frame trend for metals remains intact. He advises investors to watch for stabilization during key liquidity windows, such as the New York or CME opens, to identify potential re-entry points.

Critical Levels and Technical Outlook

Looking ahead, the technical analysis points to specific price levels that will dictate the market's medium-term direction. For Bitcoin, the immediate focus is on the $72,000 to $74,000 range. This zone represents a historic pivot point involving previous all-time highs and reaction levels to major political and economic news.

"If we do not survive this retest right here, I think it looks very bad. I think this opens up the possibility of a gap fill all the way back down potentially to around the 40 or 50ks right here. I think that would be pretty much signaling that it is over for a long time."

To illustrate the severity of the chart damage, Brendan suggests inverting the Bitcoin chart. When flipped, the chart resembles a massive bullish breakout from a consolidation range, implying that the actual asset is primed for a significant downward expansion.

Broader Market Correlations

While the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, showing resilience that makes it difficult to short, Brendan warns of potential overheating. He identifies the 6,540 level as a key threshold; a break below this could signal a local top for equities. However, he maintains that crypto is showing weakness relative to almost every other asset class, making it a defensive short regardless of broader equity performance.

Future Narratives vs. Price Action

Despite the bearish technicals, some market participants continue to look for fundamental salvation, specifically the rise of AI agents utilizing cryptocurrency rails for autonomous micro-transactions. While acknowledging the theoretical potential of this narrative, Brendan argues that adoption does not always correlate with immediate price appreciation.

He maintains a strict adherence to price action over narrative, noting that bullish narratives typically form after the charts have already moved. Until Bitcoin can reclaim the $98,000 level or establish a higher high on significant volume, the trend remains unequivocally down. Investors are advised to remain defensive, favoring liquid assets with proven momentum over speculative recovery plays in the digital asset space.