Table of Contents
As we settle into 2026, Bitcoin has started the year with a complex market structure that leaves investors debating the asset's next major trajectory. Currently trading around the $92,000 to $93,000 level, Bitcoin is navigating a post-peak environment that mirrors—but does not perfectly replicate—historical cycles. The market recently experienced a top in October 2025, followed by three consecutive months of downward pressure. Now, as green candles begin to appear in the first quarter, the critical question remains: Is this a durable recovery, or a classic "return to normal" bounce before a deeper correction?
To understand the probability of these scenarios, we must rely on data rather than sentiment. By analyzing the Bull Market Support Band and key moving averages, we can map out the technical hurdles Bitcoin faces in the coming months. This analysis explores historical precedents from 2014, 2018, and 2022 to forecast how the rest of 2026 might unfold.
Key Takeaways
- Current Market Position: Bitcoin is hovering in the low $90k range following an October top and a subsequent three-month correction, showing signs of a counter-trend rally to start 2026.
- The Critical Resistance Zone: The Bull Market Support Band and the 50-week moving average currently reside between $99,000 and $102,000. A rejection here would signal a continuation of the bear market.
- Historical Patterns: In previous "midterm" years (2014, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin typically fell below the 50-week MA, bounced to test it as resistance, and then dropped to the 200-week MA.
- Apathy vs. Euphoria: Unlike previous blow-off tops, the recent peak was characterized by apathy rather than euphoria, suggesting a different psychological cycle that could end with a final "lower high" trap.
- The 200-Week Target: The base case expectation is a test of the 200-week moving average by Summer or October 2026, assuming the $100k resistance holds.
The State of the Cycle: Analyzing the "Return to Normal"
The transition into 2026 has brought a reprieve from the selling pressure witnessed in late 2025. Historically, when Bitcoin tops out—as it seemingly did in October—it is often followed by a specific cadence of monthly closes. In the 2021 cycle, the market saw three red months, followed by two green months, before resuming a downtrend. Similarly, the current cycle has already printed three collective red months leading into the new year.
This market behavior aligns with the concept of a "counter-trend rally." After the initial shock of a market top wears off and the first batch of sellers exits, the market often attempts to push back up. This move is frequently misinterpreted as a continuation of the bull run. However, seasoned analysts view this as a back-test of critical support levels that have now flipped into resistance.
"This is one of those difficult times where, if you want the bull market to continue, there's still a lot to prove. And if you're a bear... you're speculating that it'll lead to sort of this lower high that'll then lead to a lower low."
The current price action suggests we are in the midst of this rally. While Bitcoin has outperformed the onset of previous bear markets (such as the immediate crash in 2022), it is tracking closely with the average performance of prior midterm years. This suggests a potential upside of 10-15% from the yearly open, which would bring price action directly into collision with the most significant technical indicator of the cycle: the Bull Market Support Band.
The Bull Market Support Band: The $100k Barrier
The Bull Market Support Band constitutes the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In a healthy uptrend, Bitcoin holds these levels as support. Once these levels are broken, as they were in late 2025, they historically act as formidable resistance.
The 50-Week Moving Average Test
Closely correlated with the support band is the 50-week moving average. In almost every major correction (2018 and 2022 specifically), Bitcoin followed a distinct pattern:
- Price breaks below the 50-week MA.
- Price finds temporary support at the 100-week MA.
- A counter-trend rally occurs, bringing the price back up to test the 50-week MA.
- The test fails, leading to a deeper capitulation toward the 200-week MA.
Currently, the 50-week moving average sits slightly above $100,000. The Bull Market Support Band ranges from approximately $99,000 to $102,000. This creates a highly confluent zone of resistance. If Bitcoin pushes higher in the coming weeks, this is the definitive area where the strength of the trend will be decided. A clean break and multiple weekly closes above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis, but a rejection would likely confirm the transition into a prolonged bear market.
Psychology of the "Apathy Top"
One distinct feature of the recent market cycle is the sentiment surrounding the peak. Most Bitcoin cycles end in euphoria—a blow-off top where retail interest is at an all-time high. However, the data suggests the recent high was marked by apathy. Social interest metrics remained low, and new retail investors were largely absent.
This resembles the 2019 market structure more than 2017 or 2021. In 2019, the market experienced a lower high that trapped investors who believed the super cycle was intact. Because the market topped on apathy, the final "trap" may be technical rather than emotional. The "Super Cycle" narrative—the belief that Bitcoin will no longer experience 80% drawdowns—remains prevalent among holdouts.
"Because we topped on apathy rather than euphoria... the next rejection could be what makes the super cycle guys convinced it's a bear market."
It typically takes about three months after a top to flush out the initial weak hands. Once that selling exhaustion hits, the market rallies, giving the "super cycle" proponents one last glimmer of hope. This psychological setup suggests that a rejection at $100k would serve as the final confirmation needed to shift sentiment from denial to acceptance of the bear trend.
Expectations for the Remainder of 2026
If the market follows the trajectory of historical midterm years, the roadmap for 2026 appears volatile but predictable. The primary expectation is that the current rally is a counter-trend move destined to set a lower high.
The 200-Week Moving Average Target
The ultimate destination for bear market bottoms has historically been the 200-week moving average. The sequence of 50w breakdown → 100w support → 50w retest → 200w capitulation has played out reliably in the past. Based on this, a test of the 200-week moving average seems probable by Summer or October 2026.
Invalidation Criteria
No analysis is complete without an invalidation thesis. While the base case is bearish, the market must prove it. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the 50-week moving average and sustain multiple weekly closes above it, the "lower high" theory would need to be discarded. While statistically less likely given the 2014, 2018, and 2022 precedents, it remains a possibility that investors must monitor.
Conclusion
As we navigate the early months of 2026, Bitcoin appears to be executing a textbook counter-trend rally. The price action is currently sandwiched between support at the 100-week moving average and heavy resistance at the 50-week moving average and Bull Market Support Band ($99k–$102k). While the start of the year has been green, investors should remain cautious of the $100,000 level.
History suggests that this rally may serve as a final exit opportunity before a grind lower toward the 200-week moving average later in the year. Whether this cycle ends with a whimper or a bang depends on the market's reaction to that critical six-figure resistance zone. Until the 50-week moving average is reclaimed with conviction, the trend remains guilty until proven innocent.
