Humanoid Market to Reach $200B by 2035 Barclays Says

Barclays has forecasted that the global market for humanoid robots will surge to $200 billion by 2035, driven by a convergence of plummeting production costs, advancing artificial intelligence, and a looming global labor shortage. The investment bank’s analysis suggests that the sector is rapidly transitioning from research laboratories to active deployment in the real economy, with thousands of units already operational in manufacturing environments.

Key Points

• Market Valuation: Barclays projects the humanoid robot industry will reach $200 billion within the next decade.
• Cost Reduction: Unit production costs have dropped 30-fold in five years, falling from roughly $3 million to $100,000.
• Labor Drivers: Aging populations and urbanization are creating structural labor shortages in manufacturing hubs.
• Global Landscape: China currently leads in deployment, though the United States is rapidly closing the gap.

Demographic Shifts Fueling Commercial Viability

While the technological capabilities of robots have captured headlines, Barclays identifies global demographic trends as the primary catalyst for market demand. As the world population ages and urbanization accelerates, the pool of available labor for traditional manufacturing and industrial roles is shrinking.

According to the firm's research, the percentage of the global population aged 65 and older is expected to double by 2050. Simultaneously, the workforce is migrating toward cities, creating a geographical mismatch with manufacturing facilities that are typically located in rural areas.

"AI is indeed getting very physical and I think humanoid robots are the forefront of this trend... Workers' preferences are changing. There will be certain essential jobs—yet undesirable—which might not be filled. This is precisely where humanoids enter the picture."

The analysis indicates that humanoid robots will primarily target "dull, dirty, and dangerous" roles. By automating repetitive tasks, these machines are expected to augment human productivity rather than simply replacing the workforce, resolving structural inefficiencies in the industrial sector.

Plummeting Costs and Technical Convergence

The economic viability of humanoid robots has improved drastically over the last half-decade. Barclays estimates that the cost to produce a single unit has declined by approximately 30 times over the past five years, dropping from an estimated $3 million to around $100,000 today. This deflation is attributed to simultaneous breakthroughs in three critical areas:

• Cognitive AI Models: Enhanced software allowing robots to process real-world data more effectively.
• Battery Efficiency: More powerful energy storage solutions enabling longer operational windows.
• High-Precision Manufacturing: Improved production techniques for the robots themselves.

"When I put all these three components together, the result is that the unit cost for producing humanoid robots is coming down... This means that the economics are getting optically more attractive, the use cases are expanding, and hence the investment opportunity is also becoming more real."

Current Deployment and Future Competition

Contrary to the perception that humanoids are purely futuristic concepts, Barclays notes that the technology has already entered the commercial phase. A few thousand humanoid robots are currently deployed on factory floors, executing structured tasks in manufacturing environments. This sector serves as a natural entry point due to its defined workflows and controlled environments.

Looking ahead, the bank expects the deployment numbers to scale exponentially as technology matures. By 2035, the installed base could grow from thousands to potentially millions of units. In terms of geopolitical leadership, China currently holds the advantage in active deployments, though analysts note that the United States is competing fiercely and catching up quickly.

As the barrier to entry lowers and the technology proves its value in structured environments, the industry anticipates a rapid expansion into broader sectors, cementing the humanoid robot as a critical component of the future global economy.