Analyzing Bitcoin Price Momentum: Resistance & On-Chain Clues

Bitcoin price momentum faces key resistance near $93k-$95k. On-chain data reveals market resets and potential sell-side pressure ahead, shaping the next market move.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin's price rally is testing crucial resistance, attempting to consolidate above the $93k-$95k zone, the 111DMA ($91.3k), and the STH cost-basis ($93.2k).
• The recent price surge above key technical and on-chain levels suggests noteworthy strength, but holding these levels is vital for continued positive momentum.
• Multiple on-chain indicators (MVRV, % Supply in Profit) show a structural reset, suggesting speculative excess has diminished during the recent correction.
• Investor confidence appears to be recovering, with metrics like MVRV and Percent Supply in Profit bouncing off their long-term means.
• Spending dynamics indicate a return to profit-taking, but overall activity remains subdued, suggesting market equilibrium near current prices.
• Long-Term Holders (LTHs) show a strong preference for HODLing, with accumulation outweighing spending, indicating confidence despite recent volatility.
• Significant sell-side pressure is anticipated near $99.9k, where average LTHs reach +350% unrealized profit, potentially slowing upward movement.
• A dense cluster of coins held between $95k-$98k could add further resistance as investors look to exit near their break-even point.
• Successfully navigating the $95k-$98k resistance could open the path towards price discovery, given the lower volume of coins held above $100k.

Bitcoin Price Encounters Key Resistance Zone

• Bitcoin's upward price momentum is currently confronting its first significant resistance barrier as it tries to establish support above the critical $93k to $95k region, which previously acted as a consolidation range low between November 2024 and February 2025.
• A potentially important shift is occurring as the spot price has broken its recent downtrend, establishing a higher high pattern, indicating a possible reversal or strengthening of the market structure.
• The market is testing the confluence of key technical and on-chain indicators, specifically the 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA) at $91.3k and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $93.2k, both historically significant levels for defining market regimes.
• Successfully breaking and holding above this $91.3k-$93.2k zone is crucial for further price appreciation; a rejection would signal renewed bearish sentiment and push many recent buyers back into unrealized loss positions.

Evidence of a Market Reset

• Analysis of market drawdown duration, measured by days spent below the 111DMA and STH Cost Basis, suggests the recent correction's 'time pain' is comparable to previous cycle drawdowns but hasn't reached extreme bear market levels yet.
• A granular look at STH sub-groups shows investors holding coins for over a month are now back in profit following the recent surge, reducing financial stress and offering an early sign of positive momentum if sustained.
• The MVRV Ratio, measuring average investor unrealized profit/loss, has pulled back to its long-term mean (1.74), a level historically acting as support for investor confidence, mirroring the structure seen in the mid-2024 consolidation. A sustained move above this mean would be constructive.
• The percentage of circulating supply held in profit remains high at 88%, indicating only those who bought near the $95k-$100k peak (Dec-Feb) are currently underwater. This metric also bounced strongly off its long-term mean, reinforcing the idea of a market reset.

Spending Dynamics Signal Equilibrium

• On-chain spending analysis reveals a shift following the price rally, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moving back into profit-dominated territory after approaching break-even during the downtrend, suggesting demand is currently absorbing profit-taking.
• The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), reflecting the average profit multiple on spent coins, found strong support at the 1.0 equilibrium level and has stayed in a profit-dominated regime, indicating resilience and potential defense of cost bases by buyers.
• Short, sharp dips below the SOPR=1.0 level suggest investors who bought near the local top are being flushed out, while others step in, which is a constructive sign for market health if demand persists.
• The Sell-Side Risk Ratio remains low, indicating most coins moved on-chain are transacting near their acquisition price. This typically signifies equilibrium, exhaustion of profit/loss taking in the current range, and often precedes a volatility expansion.

HODLing Prevails Amidst Potential Sell Walls

• Long-Term Holders (LTHs) continue to exhibit strong holding behavior, with spending volumes remaining low despite improved market conditions. Over +254k BTC has aged into LTH status since the recent lows, signaling accumulation outweighs de-risking.
• This HODLing preference suggests the current price range isn't attractive enough for significant LTH profit-taking, aligning with the equilibrium indicated by the Sell-Side Risk Ratio.
• Historical data suggests LTH spending pressure significantly increases when the average holder reaches +350% unrealized gains. This threshold corresponds to a Bitcoin price of approximately $99.9k, indicating potential strong resistance near that level.
• Further resistance exists between $95k and $98k, where a significant volume of coins were acquired. As price approaches this zone, investors seeking to exit at break-even could add considerable sell-side pressure, compounding the expected LTH distribution around $99.9k.
• However, if the market successfully absorbs the selling pressure within the $95k-$98k corridor, the relatively lower volume of coins held above $100k could facilitate a smoother path towards price discovery and potential new all-time highs.

Bitcoin's price has reached a critical inflection point, needing to solidify support above key technical and on-chain levels around $91k-$93k to maintain bullish momentum. While a market reset appears to have flushed out speculative excess, upcoming resistance from profit-takers and break-even sellers around $95k-$100k presents a significant hurdle.