Table of Contents
While everyone's obsessing over ChatGPT, renowned futurist Amy Webb warns we're completely missing the bigger picture that's about to reshape everything.
Key Takeaways
- The real story isn't just AI - it's the convergence of artificial intelligence, advanced sensors, and biotechnology creating an unprecedented "technology super cycle"
- Most leaders are making the classic mistake of looking at emerging technologies in isolation rather than understanding how they amplify each other
- Strategic foresight isn't about crystal ball predictions - it's a data-driven methodology that successful organizations use to make better long-term decisions
- Singapore is already selling lab-grown chicken for $17 per cutlet, demonstrating how biotechnology could completely reshape global food systems and economics
- Traditional regulation approaches are fundamentally broken for managing rapidly evolving technologies like AI and synthetic biology
- The most successful entrepreneurs and executives don't just track trends - they develop systematic capabilities for spotting convergences before competitors catch on
From Panic Attack to Predicting the Future
Amy Webb's journey to becoming one of the world's most sought-after futurists started with what seemed like a career-ending disaster. Picture this: you're 22, you've planned your entire life around becoming Solicitor General of the United States, and you have a massive panic attack during the LSAT that tanks your law school dreams.
Most people would see that as the end of the road. Webb saw it as the beginning of something entirely different.
"I had to figure out a different way to do what I wanted to do, which was shape the future," Webb explains. That pivot led her from a tiny town in northern Japan where she worked as the official "town foreigner" to becoming the CEO of the Future Today Institute, where she advises Fortune 500 companies and governments on strategic foresight.
What's fascinating about Webb's approach is how it combines rigorous data analysis with storytelling that actually moves decision-makers to action. She learned early on that having great insights means nothing if you can't get people to act on them.
- Her methodology centers on tracking signals rather than just reading headlines - signals are early indicators that most people miss because they seem disconnected or insignificant
- She distinguishes between what's "trendy" versus what's actually a lasting trend, which requires understanding the underlying forces driving change
- Webb's team of 20 researchers focuses exclusively on strategic foresight, making them incredibly specialized in spotting patterns others miss
- The key insight that launched her career came in 2002 Japan, where she had an internet-connected camera phone while Americans were still playing Snake on Nokia devices
The Technology Super Cycle That's Flying Under Everyone's Radar
Here's where Webb's latest research gets really interesting. While the business world is having endless debates about ChatGPT and AI regulation, she's identified something much bigger happening - the convergence of three "general purpose technologies" that are starting to amplify each other in unprecedented ways.
Think of general purpose technologies as innovations so fundamental they reshape entire economies. We're talking about things like the steam engine, electricity, or the internet. Webb has identified three emerging ones that are beginning to converge:
- Artificial Intelligence - which everyone's talking about, but mostly in isolation from everything else
- Advanced Sensor Technology - the millions of sensors now embedded in everything from phones to bicycles to city infrastructure, generating behavioral and real-world data that goes far beyond what you can scrape from public websites
- Biotechnology - specifically synthetic biology and generative biology, which Webb describes as "ChatGPT for molecular structures" where you can input what you want and get formulas for creating new materials or organisms
The magic happens when these technologies start reinforcing each other. Improvements in AI enable better sensor data analysis, which provides richer datasets for training more sophisticated AI models, which can then be applied to biotechnology challenges that seemed impossible just a few years ago.
Webb uses a practical example that perfectly illustrates this convergence: lab-grown chicken. Singapore is already selling chicken cutlets grown from tissue samples in bioreactors for $17 each. Yeah, that's expensive compared to factory farm chicken, but think about the implications.
- Singapore has no space for traditional chicken farms, but they can grow unlimited chicken protein in office buildings using this technology
- This could make Singapore a net exporter of chicken to Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries, completely reshaping regional economics
- The technology eliminates the need for hormones, antibiotics, and the environmental destruction of industrial farming
- As global population explodes and climate change makes more areas uninhabitable, alternative protein sources become critical for survival
What makes this possible isn't just one breakthrough - it's AI helping optimize the biological processes, advanced sensors monitoring and controlling the bioreactors, and synthetic biology providing the tools to engineer better tissue samples.
Why Most Organizations Are Terrible at Seeing What's Coming
Webb has spent years trying to understand why smart, successful leaders consistently miss major technological shifts that seem obvious in hindsight. Her diagnosis is pretty brutal: most people are looking in all the wrong places.
"The problem is that when people are looking for how to change or grow, they look at their peers, their direct competitive set," Webb explains. "They are never looking at their near peers or even theoretical peers or those who are a couple of clicks away or looking at totally different industries."
This myopic focus creates massive blind spots. Here's what Webb sees successful organizations doing differently:
- They develop systematic processes for tracking "signals" - early indicators of change that might seem unrelated to their business
- They distinguish between uncertainties they can control versus forces completely outside their influence, then plan scenarios around both
- They invest in developing organizational capabilities for foresight rather than just hiring consultants to deliver one-time predictions
- Most importantly, they look beyond their immediate industry for analogous solutions and frameworks that could be adapted
Webb points to Herman Khan at RAND Corporation as a master example of effective foresight communication. Instead of giving military leaders boring probabilistic assessments about nuclear war scenarios, Khan told visceral stories about what daily life would look like in the aftermath - like every school milk carton having radiation level warnings that kids would track using arithmetic.
Those stories were immediately understandable and relevant to decision-makers, which made them incredibly effective at driving policy changes. Webb applies similar principles today, but adapted for business contexts where leaders need data-backed scenarios that connect directly to strategic decisions they need to make.
The Regulation Problem Nobody Wants to Talk About
Here's where Webb's thinking gets really provocative. She doesn't think traditional regulation is the right approach for managing AI, biotechnology, and advanced sensors - and she has compelling reasons why.
"If you use the heavy hand of regulation, you don't get compliance, you get lawsuits," Webb argues. The fundamental problem is that regulation is inherently reactive, designed to address problems that have already happened. But these emerging technologies are evolving so fast that by the time regulators understand them well enough to write effective rules, the landscape has completely changed.
The challenges multiply when you consider that biology doesn't respect geofences. You can't contain synthetic biology within national borders the way you might regulate financial services or telecommunications. Different countries have different frameworks for what's acceptable, creating massive opportunities for regulatory arbitrage.
Webb's alternative approach involves creating economic incentives that align private interests with public good, rather than relying on enforcement mechanisms that are difficult to implement and easy to challenge in court.
- She's proposed data trust frameworks where companies that participate in sharing certain types of data for public benefit get financial advantages
- Companies that refuse to participate get economically shut out through sanction-like mechanisms
- This approach democratizes power rather than concentrating it in the hands of a few companies with enough data to dominate entire sectors
- The key insight is looking at successful frameworks from other industries or contexts that could be adapted rather than trying to invent entirely new regulatory approaches
For entrepreneurs and business leaders, this creates both opportunities and responsibilities. The organizations that help shape these alternative governance frameworks early will likely have significant advantages as the technology super cycle accelerates.
Making Foresight Actionable in Your Organization
Webb gets asked constantly how leaders can actually operationalize strategic foresight rather than just reading reports and hoping for the best. Her answer is refreshingly practical: you need to develop organizational capabilities, not just hire consultants to deliver predictions.
The framework starts with understanding the difference between signals, trends, and uncertainties. Signals are early indicators of change that might seem unconnected to your business. Trends are broader patterns that emerge when you connect multiple signals over time. Uncertainties are forces you can't control but need to plan around.
Most organizations are terrible at this because they focus too much on what's immediately relevant to their current business model and not enough on forces that could completely reshape their industry in 5-10 years.
- Webb recommends dedicating specific resources to tracking convergences between seemingly unrelated technologies or social changes
- Successful foresight requires challenging your own assumptions and beliefs, especially ones that have served your organization well in the past
- The goal isn't to predict exactly what will happen, but to develop enough understanding of possible scenarios that you can adapt quickly when changes accelerate
- Perhaps most importantly, you need to become a student of behavioral psychology to understand how to communicate insights in ways that actually drive decision-making
Webb emphasizes that having brilliant insights means nothing if you can't get people to act on them. This requires understanding your audience well enough to make abstract technological changes feel immediately relevant to the decisions they need to make tomorrow morning.
What Webb's Watching in 2025
Beyond her personal excitement about tackling a brutal 350-mile gravel bike race in Kansas, Webb is optimistic about the year ahead for a reason that might surprise you. She sees the current disruption as an opportunity rather than a threat.
"It's like somebody took the chessboard and shook up all the pieces, and now we get to play a new game," she explains. For leaders who develop good strategic foresight capabilities and start thinking systematically about convergences, the next few years could be incredibly rewarding.
The technology super cycle Webb has identified isn't just an abstract concept - it's already reshaping everything from food production to healthcare to manufacturing. The question isn't whether these changes will happen, but whether your organization will be positioned to benefit from them or get left behind by competitors who saw them coming.
