Why We Haven't Met Aliens Yet (And Why AI Will Never Be Human)

An astrophysicist's provocative take on humanity's biggest questions: Are we alone? Will machines become conscious? And why our approach to both might be fundamentally flawed.

Key Takeaways

• We haven't found aliens because we've barely looked - all SETI searches combined equal searching a "hot tub" of the ocean
• Current UFO evidence is scientifically worthless due to pre-edited data and lack of proper controls
• New telescopes can now detect biosignatures and technosignatures in exoplanet atmospheres for the first time
• Climate change is an inevitable "astrobiological transition" that any advanced civilization faces
• Mars colonization is pure fantasy - we need to solve Earth's problems first to afford space expansion
• Science has confused "the map for the terrain," treating abstractions as more real than lived experience
• Current AI approaches are fundamentally flawed because there's "no one in there" - just sophisticated tools
• The next 50 years will be difficult as our current world order undergoes complex systems collapse

The Alien Question: Why the Silence Isn't So Mysterious

Astrophysicist Adam Frank has spent his career studying the cosmos, but he's tired of one persistent myth: that scientists have thoroughly searched for extraterrestrial life and found nothing. "The most important reason we haven't met aliens is we haven't looked," Frank explains bluntly.

This might shock people familiar with SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) programs, but Frank's colleague Jason Wright conducted a study that puts our search efforts in perspective. Using an ocean metaphor, if we wanted to determine whether fish exist in Earth's oceans, our total search effort to date has covered the equivalent of a hot tub's worth of water.

"If you looked at a hot tub worth of water and didn't find any fish, would you then say there's no fish in the ocean? That would be crazy."

Why We've Searched So Little:

• SETI was always marginal in the scientific community with minimal funding
• No long-term, well-funded programs existed until recently
• Most searches focused on radio signals from just a few nearby stars
• Before 1995, we didn't even know if planets existed around other stars

The lack of contact also makes sense from a probability standpoint. Even if technological civilizations are common, they need to overlap in both time and space. If each lasts 100,000 years but appears randomly every million years, the galaxy could be mostly empty right now even with frequent civilization emergence.

UFOs: Why the "Evidence" Isn't Evidence

Frank strongly supports transparent scientific investigation of UFOs (now called UAPs), but he pushes back hard against claims that existing data proves extraterrestrial visitation. "There's all this data that we have that we could actually tell what these things are and that they already show they're of extraterrestrial origin. That is just not true."

Problems with Current UFO Evidence:

• Only three Navy pilot videos exist, constantly repackaged and re-released
• Videos are pre-edited with voice-overs, making scientific analysis impossible
• No access to raw radar data or instrument specifications
• Pentagon studies find 96% of reports are explainable as conventional phenomena

Frank cites analysis of the famous "tic tac" video that seems to show incredible speeds. When scientists used the actual display data for calculations, the object was moving at 40 mph, thousands of feet up - consistent with a balloon in the wind, not an alien spacecraft.

"In science, you have to understand your data. If I want to build a cell phone, I have rigorous standards of evidence. If I tried to use those same rigorous standards to infer these things are moving at impossible speeds, I'd get a brick, not a cell phone."

The Exoplanet Revolution: Finally Having the Right Tools

The game-changer for astrobiology came in 1995 with the discovery of the first exoplanet - answering a question that dated back to ancient Greek philosophers. Since then, we've learned that every star has a family of planets orbiting it.

Modern telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope can now perform "atmospheric characterization" - analyzing the chemical composition of exoplanet atmospheres. This capability opens the door to detecting both biosignatures and technosignatures.

Biosignatures vs. Technosignatures:

• Biosignatures: Oxygen in an atmosphere indicates active life pumping it out (it would quickly bind to rocks without continuous replenishment)
• Technosignatures: Artificial compounds like CFCs that only technology can produce, detectable across 40+ light years

Frank leads NASA's first grant specifically studying atmospheric technosignatures, marking the field's transition from fringe science to mainstream research. "If you're going to look for biosignatures, which NASA is all in on, why would you not look for technosignatures?"

Climate Change: The Universal Challenge of Success

Frank reframes climate change as an inevitable "astrobiological transition" that any successful civilization faces. "Any civilization that gets to our point where we're harvesting so much energy to do the work of civilization is probably going to trigger some version of climate change."

This perspective removes the moral judgment and political baggage, viewing it instead as a marker of civilizational development. "Triggering climate change is actually a marker of your success as a civilization. Not doing anything about it once you realize it is a trigger of your failure."

The Energy-Climate Connection:

• All advanced civilizations must increase energy usage to support large populations
• This energy use inevitably affects planetary systems and climate
• The challenge isn't avoiding climate change but managing the transition sustainably
• Success determines whether civilizations become spacefaring or collapse

Frank's analysis suggests this transition point might explain why we don't see evidence of numerous advanced civilizations - many may fail to navigate this critical juncture.

Why Mars Isn't Our Backup Plan

Elon Musk's Mars colonization dreams get a reality check from Frank's planetary science perspective. "The idea that you could take what we have on Earth and move it to Mars in any significant way anytime soon is like seriously smoking a lot of weed."

Mars Reality Check:

• Atmosphere is 1/100th of Earth's density
• Dry, dead world requiring underground habitation
• Might support small settlements (300 people) but not Earth's backup
• Would require enormous wealth to establish - wealth that won't exist if we don't solve climate change

Frank supports eventual solar system settlement over centuries, but emphasizes it's "the prize we win if we deal with climate change." Without solving Earth's problems first, we won't have the economic foundation for serious space expansion.

"Unless we solve climate change, we won't have the wealth to be able to have commercial space ventures and do the work of space mining. The solar system is the prize we win if we make a long-term sustainable version of this civilization."

The Science "Blind Spot": When Maps Become More Real Than Territory

Frank's book "The Blind Spot" tackles a fundamental problem in how we think about science and reality. The issue isn't science itself, but the metaphysics that gets attached to it - the belief that scientific abstractions are more real than lived experience.

The Map vs. Territory Problem:

• Science creates powerful abstractions (like reducing hot/cold experience to temperature measurements)
• These abstractions become treated as more "real" than the experience they map
• We mistake useful tools for complete descriptions of reality
• This leads to philosophical paradoxes and cultural damage

"Science began about 500 years ago with the view that you could think about the world as a machine. That was super powerful. But people started substituting the map for the terrain. We are not machines. I am not a computer made out of meat."

This machine metaphor, while useful for certain scientific purposes, creates problems when applied universally - leading to farming techniques that ignore ecosystem complexity or healthcare approaches that treat bodies as purely biochemical machines.

Why Current AI Will Never Be Conscious

Frank's analysis of artificial intelligence flows directly from his critique of scientific reductionism. Current AI approaches make a fundamental category error by trying to build consciousness from the "outside" without understanding what consciousness actually is.

The Consciousness Problem:

• No third-person, "God's eye view" of consciousness exists
• All scientific abstractions start from lived experience
• Current AI has "no one in there" - no agency or autonomous experience
• LLMs are sophisticated tools, but the intelligence belongs to their human users

"These crappy versions of minds are going to be shoved down our throats. We're going to build a society around them. And what we're going to get is something that actually lowers what it means to be a human."

Frank warns that economic incentives will force these limited AI systems into every aspect of life, potentially diminishing human potential rather than enhancing it.

The Embodied Intelligence Alternative

Real consciousness requires what philosophers call the "enactive approach" - recognizing that minds are always embodied and embedded in environments. This understanding offers a different path for AI development.

Key Principles:

• Embodied: No brain exists separately from the body; consciousness emerges from integrated systems
• Embedded: Intelligence exists within communities, ecosystems, and cultural contexts
• Autonomous Agency: True intelligence requires genuine agency, not just sophisticated responses

"Life never appears alone. You and I can have this conversation because we're both part of a community of language users that existed before we got here, embedded in ecosystems, embedded in the biosphere."

Complex Systems in Transition: Why the Next 50 Years Will Be Difficult

Frank applies complex systems theory to our current global situation, concluding that major transitions are inevitable. "The world order is a complex system, and there's no doubt that the one we've had for the last 100 years or so is melting."

Complex Systems Dynamics:

• Systems can remain stable for long periods (Earth's climate stayed stable for 10,000 years)
• Sufficient perturbations cause rapid transitions to new states
• The new state often can't be predicted from the old one
• We're currently experiencing such a transition in global governance and economics

Frank emphasizes preparing for this transition while minimizing human suffering: "The more suffering, the more chaos, the more disruption. We need to think about what comes next."

Governance for Planetary Challenges

Frank advocates for new governance structures that operate above nation-states while maintaining local decision-making. Drawing from the Berggruen Institute's work, he envisions:

Multi-Level Governance:

• Planetary-scale goal setting for global challenges like climate change
• Implementation through lowest possible levels (town, county, state)
• Recognition that nation-states may not be permanent fixtures
• Gentle, democratic approaches rather than authoritarian world government

"You need something that can set policy and be enforced at the planetary scale for planetary-scale problems, but you try and do all your governance always defaulting to the lowest level."

Personal Wisdom: Work, Purpose, and Contemplative Practice

Frank's advice for young people reflects his three decades of Zen meditation practice: "You want work that is fulfilling and satisfying, but work is not everything. You want to be helpful, useful, and make sure whatever you do has an impact you feel good about when you go to bed."

He emphasizes that not everyone has clear passion from childhood (though he knew he wanted to study astronomy at age 5). The key is finding work that contributes positively while maintaining perspective on what truly matters.

Science Fiction as Philosophical Laboratory

Frank credits science fiction, particularly Kim Stanley Robinson's work, for providing frameworks to think about complex futures. He recommends:

Essential Reading:

• Red/Green/Blue Mars trilogy: For thinking about solar system settlement
• Ministry for the Future: For climate change scenarios
• New York 2140: For post-sea level rise urban planning
• The Expanse series: For realistic space civilization dynamics

"I get a lot of my ideas from good science fiction. Kim Stanley Robinson thinks deeply about these things - it's not just entertainment but profound exploration of possibilities."

The Path Forward: Integration vs. Transcendence

Frank's vision for humanity's future emphasizes integration rather than escape or transcendence. Whether addressing climate change, developing AI, or searching for aliens, the solution involves better understanding our embeddedness in natural and social systems.

The goal isn't to transcend human limitations through technology, but to build what he calls a "vibrant technosphere" that allows both technological civilization and the biosphere to thrive together. This requires abandoning the fantasy that we're separate from or above natural systems.

"Our job is not to save the Earth. It's to recognize that the Earth is a complex powerful system with huge amounts of energy channeling through it and then build the technosphere, integrate the technosphere into that so that everybody thrives."

This integration challenge applies whether we're developing consciousness in machines, governing planetary systems, or preparing for eventual contact with other civilizations. Success requires humility about our place in larger systems while maintaining confidence in our ability to adapt and create beneficial outcomes.

The universe may be vast and largely empty of intelligence, but the intelligence that does exist - including our own - carries profound responsibility for how it shapes the systems it touches. Frank's work suggests that understanding this responsibility, rather than escaping it, holds the key to long-term civilizational success.